So, US jobless claims. I’d be remiss not to mention them this week.
This series hasn’t been especially useful in the post-pandemic era. It often feels “dead,” for lack of a better word.
But in the context of headlines trumpeting job cuts, buyouts and layoff announcements at some of the world’s largest companies, it’s worth noting that the weekly filers series just plunged to its lowest levels since late 1969.
Initial claims in the week to April 25 were just 189,000, the Labor Department said Thursday.
With apologies to the real people behind that number, 189,000 might as well be zero on this series. And it’s starkly at odds with the idea of a looming “labor crisis” in America.
The week-to-week drop, at 26,000, matched September 13, 2025, for the largest decline since October of 2021.
Macro bears got no help from the continuing claims series. At 1.785 million in the week to April 18 (remember: it’s reported on a two-week delay), ongoing filers were the lowest in over two years.
Needless to say, consensus wasn’t even close on these readouts. Economists expected 212,000 from initial claims and 1.815 million from continuing filers.
I’m not sure exactly what to say about this other than that so far anyway, the above-mentioned “crisis” isn’t manifesting as demands for benefits.

