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‘Key Services Sector Hiring Gauge Plunges!’ Is A Headline You’ll Probably Click
To the extent markets needed an "offset" for a hot NFP print and a commensurately warm read on US wa
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An unbiased analysis with no clear conclusion is very refreshing. Thank you!
My guess only. Most FOMC members, looking at the rollover in shelter CPI, continuing slack in goods, and various core and super-core CPI/PCE measures, are feeling fairly confident that inflation is on the desired trajectory. Their focus has shifted to achieving a soft landing which, they think, will elevate them high in the historical pantheon of skillful and successful Federal Reserves. Based on China struggling, ROW looking weak, and almost every precedent for rate cut periods, they probably think a hard landing is more of a risk than no-landing. Further, a hard landing automatically disqualifies them from elevation (game over, no pantheon), while a no-landing means they get to keep playing for their place in history. So they will be more attentive to weak economic data than to strong data. Again, purely speculation.
The canary is just tuckered out after a long squawk.