Stocks Look Beyond GDP Barnburner To Price Slower Growth
We've entered "a new phase of the rising rate saga."
That's according to Goldman's David Kostin.
Well, actually, it's according to "sharp underperformance" from cyclicals, which Kostin said is a sign that tighter financial conditions brought on by higher long-end yields and, relatedly, the term premium repricing since late-July, are weighing on market participants' forward-looking growth assessments.
Utilities have outperformed in October "despite potential headwinds from high leverage," Kost
I earlier speculated, in a comment (link below) that perhaps all we are seeing is a normalizing economy and market.
https://heisenbergreport.com/2023/10/27/spending-data-underscores-resilient-consumer-narrative/comment-page-1/#comment-70959
“Normalization”, if it looks like what I described, implies slowdown from where earnings growth has been.
+MSD rev gro 2024 x 15-16% EBIT margin x 15-17X P/E implies . . . I don’t recall exactly, but I think it’s mid-to-high 3,000s on the S&P 500.