“Why doesn’t the company pay us back?” wondered an irritable investor in a trust product sold by Zhongrong International.

Video posted to Chinese social media this week appeared to show small protests at a Zhongrong office, where the aggrieved gathered to commiserate. Their frustrations center around missed payments on high yield investment vehicles peddled by the firm, which is partially controlled by Zhongzhi Enterprise Group, the trillion-yuan conglomerate at the center of a burgeoning shadow banking crisis in China.

According to Reuters, “dozens” of listed companies in the onshore market were “bombarded” this week by questions from investors asking after firms’ exposure to Zhongrong products, underscoring how pervasive the problem is — or how pervasive market participants worry it might be.

At the heart of the panic are fresh concerns about the property market, and particularly Country Garden. If you’re wondering how large the Chinese shadow banking industry’s exposure is in that regard, the answer is CNY1.566 trillion, according to Goldman. That’s the bank’s estimate of property credit exposure for trusts, including loans and bonds.

So, this is a quarter-trillion dollar issue, and as you can see from the chart, Goldman reckons losses could come to $40 billion.

“The estimated loss rate is ~17.8%, implying a loss of CNY278 billion,” the bank’s Shuo Yang wrote, adding that those estimated losses “would equate to 8x trust sector profit and 39% of their 2022 capital base.”

Needless to say, losses of that magnitude could lead to liquidity problems for China’s trust industry, which is quite large. Total AUM in Q1 was roughly 21 trillion in Mao faces, or around three trillion if you prefer George Washington’s stately visage.