‘A Long And Meaningful Phone Call’

For the first time since Russia invaded its neighbor, Volodymyr Zelensky spoke to Xi Jinping.

The call, described by Zelensky as “long and meaningful,” came a month after Xi’s lavish state visit to Moscow, where he reveled in pageantry with Vladimir Putin.

Zelensky has expressed skepticism about China’s sincerity when it comes to facilitating a durable ceasefire, although he’s generally eschewed public criticism of Xi.

In late February, just hours after Wang Yi, Xi’s top diplomat, met with Putin, China released what Beijing characterized as a “peace plan.” The West generally dismissed the proposal as a nebulous list of Kremlin-friendly talking points.

Although the US and its allies have repeatedly suggested China is funneling military aid to Russia through dual-use technology, the West is loath to ostracize Xi entirely. Russia is, to a greater or lesser degree, a client state of China’s now, and given the asymmetry of the relationship, Xi can probably compel Putin to negotiate on terms the West can’t. Whether he’s interested in using his sway to bring Putin to the table is another matter.

China did have amicable ties and a deepening trade relationship with Ukraine prior to the war. Ironically given the distinct possibility that Xi views Ukraine as a lab experiment for determining what China could expect from the West in a prospective cross-Strait military operation, China bought its first aircraft carrier from Ukraine. The Liaoning was a “stripped hulk” in 1998 when it was towed to Dalian.

Although Beijing insists China is neutral in the war, no one believes as much. On the one-year anniversary of the invasion, China’s refusal to use the word “war” to describe the fighting prevented G20 finance chiefs from releasing a joint communiqué after meetings in India. Party officials routinely traffic in Kremlin propaganda, including all the usual “Whataboutism” and associated claims about NATO expansion, which Beijing and Moscow insist is tantamount to aggression. Earlier this week, Beijing was forced to backtrack after China’s ambassador to France appeared to question the sovereignty+ of post-Soviet states, apparently emboldened by Emmanuel Macron’s noncommittal remarks about Taiwan.

Xi does have an interest in facilitating a peace agreement, though. A defeated Russia would presumably be even more dependent on China economically and would become a de facto protectorate militarily, notwithstanding Putin’s nuclear deterrent. China would probably rather avoid such an outcome.

Another outcome Xi doesn’t want is a worst-case scenario where Putin goes rogue and does something bad enough to compel a NATO response. There’s no guarantee that a power vacuum in Moscow would immediately be filled through a democratic process, or even a quasi-democratic transition.

Simply put (and at the risk of conjuring a wholly dubious episode), Xi doesn’t want Russia to become Libya, particularly given the nukes that’d be up for grabs in a failed state scenario. It’s worth noting that so goes Putin, so goes Alexander Lukashenko. If Russia descended into chaos due to some miscalculation on Putin’s part, Belarus would too.

“I believe this call, as well as the appointment of Ukraine’s ambassador to China, will give a powerful impetus to the development of our bilateral relations,” Zelensky said Wednesday, of the call with Xi.

Somewhat tragically, the last known call between the two men occurred on January 4, 2022, when the two “exchanged congratulatory messages… to celebrate the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties,” as Beijing described the call.

The readout of that discussion, published by the Chinese foreign ministry, comes across as unfathomably callous in hindsight if you believe Xi knew, at the time, of Putin’s intentions. “I attach great importance to the development of the China-Ukraine strategic partnership,” Xi said, less than two months before Putin invaded.  He went on to tell Zelensky that China intended to “push for more results” in the bilateral relationship and develop cooperation “in various fields, so as to bring benefits to the two countries and their peoples.”