“Providing material support to Russia or assistance with any kind of systemic sanctions evasion would be a very serious concern for us,” Janet Yellen said Thursday.
She was referring to US concerns that China is engaged in a backdoor effort to supply Vladimir Putin with key technology that can be employed (and deployed) in Ukraine.
Yellen spoke from India, where she attended a G-20 event in Bengaluru, the country’s tech hub. Although the meetings were convened to discuss a variety of key economic issues including debt relief, crypto regulation, taxes and climate finance, geopolitical conflict cast a shadow over the gathering.
Tellingly, India was working behind the scenes to preemptively scrub the word “war” from any joint communiqué, pushing instead for “crisis” or, euphemistically, “challenge.” Although Putin no longer hesitates to say “war” out loud when the mood strikes, the Kremlin has generally insisted on alternative descriptions both domestically and abroad.
India bought a record amount of oil from Russia in January, when imports from Moscow accounted for more than a quarter of the total. “India is not keen to discuss or back any additional sanctions on Russia during the G-20,” an Indian official who spoke to Reuters said. “The existing sanctions on Russia have had a negative impact on the world.” Suffice to say not everyone would agree with that assessment.
To be sure, India isn’t excited about the prospect of taking any sides against the US or the West more broadly. At the same time, though, the world’s second-most populous nation is keen to forge its own foreign policy path and pursue its own interests — whatever that entails. Relations with China are on-again, off-again, but India can’t be relied upon to join any systematic effort to ostracize Moscow.
Increasingly, Washington’s focus is on Beijing’s support for the war (India will forgive me for calling the conflict what it is). The red carpet treatment afforded to Wang Yi in Moscow on Tuesday and Wednesday+ will only heighten US concerns.
“One year into the war, the Russian economy is stagnant, but not crippled,” The New York Times wrote this week, adding that although the country “has lost direct access to coveted Western consumer brands and imports of the most advanced technology, individuals and companies around the world have stepped in to provide black market versions of these same products, or cheaper alternatives made in China or other countries.”
The White House’s new challenge is preventing dual-use technologies from finding their way to Moscow. It’s not clear that’s possible. Well, it is, but it would entail a physical blockade, a non-starter absent a war declaration.
The Times cited data from The Observatory of Economic Complexity in noting that shipments of aluminum oxide from China to Russia were 25 times higher in 2022 versus 2021. It’s probably not a coincidence that the metal is used in armored vehicles. Nor is it likely a coincidence that Russia bought a combined $56 million of drones and aircraft parts from China last year, which doesn’t sound like a lot until you consider that the total in 2021 was $0.
Yellen’s remarks in India echoed Antony Blinken who, speaking last weekend following the Munich Security Conference where he confronted Wang, said the US has “information” which indicates Beijing is actively “considering providing lethal support” to Putin. According to a Wall Street Journal, article published Wednesday, the Biden administration is considering whether to release that intelligence publicly.
“We will certainly continue to make clear to the Chinese government and the companies and banks in their jurisdiction about what the rules are regarding our sanctions and the serious consequences they would face for violating them,” Yellen went on, elaborating in Bengaluru.
She declined to detail the intelligence, but it sounds as though the public won’t have to wait long. Asked whether she’d be meeting with Chinese officials this week, Yellen said, “I don’t have a specific time frame in mind but I think it’s important to do so.”
Meanwhile, Bloomberg detailed the situation inside Russia. “[Putin] has unleashed a wave of repression not seen since his KGB hero Yuri Andropov ruled, jailing citizens for the slightest hints of questioning of his official line [and] hound[ing] artists, writers and actors from their jobs for even suggesting critical views,” an article published Thursday read.
The piece cited polling by the Levada Center, which I suppose counts as reliable in this context, but the irony of the juxtaposition presented in the article didn’t seem to occur to Bloomberg. It doesn’t matter how ostensibly “independent” the polling firm is when the people being surveyed live under “a wave of repression” defined by the ever present threat of imprisonment — or worse.
The same polling suggests (implausibly) that domestic support for the war has hovered in a three-point range between 74% and 77% every single month since April of 2022. The chart just shows a straight line. “Across Russia, citizens are turning others in for even the subtlest hint of questioning the war,” the Bloomberg piece noted.
why would Janet Yellen be making these comments on this subject matter
Because as Treasury Secretary, she’s responsible for crafting and implementing the sanctions regime. Where do you think these sanctions emanate from? The Pentagon? They’re Treasury sanctions. She is the sanctions regime.
I am all for stopping Putin, however, the current approach of the US/western world is not working. Explaining the logic of our position to India, China etc. isn’t giving us the results we want. Time to change tactics or we risk becoming extremely vulnerable on a global basis.
This is an odd remark coming from someone with a long history of leaving very hawkish comments vis-à-vis China on this website.
There’s not going to be any “explaining” the Western position to Xi Jinping, because he’s a staunch ally of Moscow’s and would prefer it if the world were run by autocrats like himself and Putin. Additionally, and whether anyone wants to admit it or not, Modi is an autocratic demagogue. Do you know anything about him? If not, I actually don’t encourage you to read about the riots he oversaw when he was a local political boss, because that story will make you physically ill, and it will forever change the way you think about India.
Your comment is akin to suggesting that the problem Progressives have in convincing folks like yourself that inequality is real and that tuition for college should be free in America, is that they (Progressives) just aren’t “explaining” the “logic” well enough.
That isn’t the problem. The problem in both cases above is that the ideological divide isn’t bridgeable — not by “logic” or by anything else.
Would you have suggestions?
I believe India and China see our logic just fine; they just don’t care. China is clearly stating it’d like to conquer territories it considers his by divine right. India may or may not want to do that (Cashmere or even Pakistan? IDK enough about their geopolitical ambitions) but certainly finds Russia’s economic and military ties hard to jettison
I believe India is now the most populous nation in the world.
And one of the poorest and most backward.
India has one of the most vibrant tech sectors in the world, bar none. Top Five, for sure.
All this behind-the-scenes may be helping Russia avoid Western sanctions, but it also provides/confirms nice intel on who owes what to whom. When a nation has to expose its real intentions to the world and the short-news cycle is watching, the starting lineup is much more obvious.
H. Thanks for the link to the OEC. Very interesting, though 26k for the full monte is a bit pricey.