Quiet Please
It's all housing on the data front in the US this week, and with Fed officials in their pre-meeting quiet period, consensus isn't likely to coalesce around a full percentage point rate increase at this month's gathering.
Barring a string of wholly anomalous housing prints or a monumental equity rally that suggests stocks are inclined to make a run at records, June's CPI report and July's preliminary read on University of Michigan inflation expectations were the final word. Although you can make
It’s futile to guess. Especially since they are likely to have at least one more bullet anyway. As an investor, my time is better spent trying to figure out what is going on in the real economy now. If you somehow manage to get that right, you are ahead of the game.
I hope they do 100 bps, they’ll have very little room to maneuver if they raise less and inflation is still rising. Zelensky’s talking about success by winter but in this very dynamic environment that’s too far away.
The Fed (and even the government) have a lot more tools to deal with a (hopefully) mild recession.