Flashpoints
Global equities touched record highs Friday and looked poised to notch the best streak of weekly gains since November (figure below), amid optimism around the world's two largest economies.
Scorching data out of the US on Thursday and signs that the Chinese consumer is a semblance of healthy bode well. Or so goes the narrative.
That's not to say there aren't concerns. There are. In fact, there are three key geopolitical flashpoints that should be on everyone's radar. Russia-Ukraine is obviousl
Guess its obvious from the Hartnett chart but big launches higher occur after bear market lows, typically not particularly unnerving for the bulls, yet this 15% gap to the 200dma and Peak PMI and extreme valuations (if anyone cares about that) are somewhat worrying for the near term outlook as we approach the old saw of Sell in May which is obviously why some chap invested $40 million into the July 25-40 Vix call spread
If I were Taiwan, I’d be desperately trying to build nukes…
Meant as a joke, I know, and I chuckled. But, really, how long can humanity continue down the road of mutually assured destruction? One mistake, one miscaluculation… and that’s all she wrote. Hegemony, global or othwerise, is an ugly word. Swords into ploughshares. For our kids’ and grandkids’ sake.
Humankind has yet to be able to find the alchemy that turns swords into ploughshares. Is there a second Einstein waiting in the wings that will show us the way? Or does every species contain it’s own demise baked into a cosmic design we are incapable of understanding.
Hear, hear…
In the meantime, we got to hope we thread the needle and survive till Utopia is real…
One myth that has lasted throughout history is that all humanity is essentially good and people will eventually stop killing one another so they can take something that belongs to someone else. They (we) never have lived up to this myth and they never will. Any conclusion to the contrary is a delusion. I spent one of the most enlightening three hours of my life in a seminar with veteran full professor of psychology from Ohio State who spent most of his illustrious career conducting repeated experiments that proved that not only humans but essentially all animals will regularly act against their best interests and the interests of their neighbors to indulge in acts which provide only short-term personal rewards — in other words we are now and always have been eternally selfish. There may be some small communities of strongly religious individuals who eschew such behavior but any reasonable look at our collective history will show endless wars funded and fought by followers and zealots of all the world’s largest religions, and most of its smaller ones. The reason for our behavior is inherent in our genes, and those of all animals, ie., the gene, or genes, which drive us to actions that are intended to raise our chances of survival. Those who don’t have these genes usually fail to survive and don’t pass on their “bad” genes. Ensuring survival is a personal act which often involves co-opting all available resources by whatever means necessary, sometimes even sharing when it is the best option. However, doing anything to survive is, by definition, selfish. Richard Dawson, an eminent scientist and author even wrote a book about this topic, entitled “The Selfish Gene.”
Which brings us to the nature-versus-nurture debate. Yes, our genes are selfish, but our brains are big and receptive to new ideas and modes of thinking. We just need new and better frameworks. Clearly, institutionalized religion has failed to persuade us to leave behind our selfish genetic baggage. One could argue that the green movement is a more sophisticated attempt to get humans to think altruistically about the greater good, but the forces opposed to it are entrenched and powerful. Could intelligent machines teach (coerce?) us to be better than our nature allows us to be? Perhaps, but I’m pretty sure I won’t be around long enough to find out. It’s a dilemma.