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From ‘We’re All Gonna Die’ To 15-Sigma ‘Hope’ Shocks (And Beyond)

Nothing is certain in life besides truisms, tautologies, death, and taxes, and even the latter needn't be preordained, or at least not if what you're talking about is "funding" government expenditures in advanced, currency-issuing economies with sufficient monetary sovereignty. Unfortunately, we all die one day, but hopes for a safe and effective COVID vaccine decrease the odds that we're all going to die tomorrow, and that, in turn, has ramifications not just for standard safe havens, but for market pricing across sectors and styles. Monday and Tuesday of this week offered a rather dramatic glimpse into a hypothetical future defined by an end to the pandemic, a reflationary macro backdrop, and a concurrent unwind of what some argue is an almost unfathomable valuation disparity between perennial secular growth/bond proxy winners and cyclical value/high beta losers. Read more: In This Market, ‘Good News Can Actually Lose You Money’ You're reminded that while Monday's record momentum unwind was unprecedented, "these things gotta happen every five months or so -- ten months," to adapt the famous Clemenza quote. "Helps to get rid of the bad blood." Some might remember what hap
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10 comments on “From ‘We’re All Gonna Die’ To 15-Sigma ‘Hope’ Shocks (And Beyond)

  1. Sheldan says:

    H: depending on one’s point of view, that banner graphic with arms flowing out of the goose’s head, is either very funny or very disturbing. My initial reaction was the latter. But I enjoy visual surprises: well done!

  2. runamok says:

    I’m curious to see what the forecasts are for the Christmas retail season. By early January, we should have a good idea of the actuals.

    I’m interested in this as it relates to possible, future outcomes of the viability of many small and medium size enterprises. If the season is not strong for these enterprises, it could foretell further liquidations and bankruptcies. Could be a last horrah! for many.

    This is a very important sector of the economy, important for overall economic dynamism, including job growth. …not to mention all the cool shops. Obviously, no additional stimulus is going to be landing to support these enterprises.

    Any young readers, if you can harness up the cash to start your own business, the time for you is coming. I’ll telegraph this out there to the ether; we need you to take the risk, try to execute on your ideas. It is going to be your time.

  3. We’ve started. We’re already waiting for the boxing day sales to do our Christmas shopping. Although I suspect that would entail entering into several Covid spreading situations.

  4. Mr. Lucky says:

    H

    You are getting really good at composing your opening banner pics. Maybe some of those will be on some of the merch.

    I am always struck by the quotable wisdom in the Godfather. Clemenza was especially good. He and Julia Child taught me to always put sugar in with tomato paste — as in, “That’s my trick.” And going to the mattresses. Sometimes you’ve just got to change up and protect yourself.

    • Yes, the banner pics do feature on some of the forthcoming apparel. But there are also quite a few designs I did specifically for the shirts. I think folks are going to like them. I just have to check them all out in person before I put them up on the site. I should get the final sample shipments on Monday/Tuesday. There will be quite a few to choose from. The goal was to create a line that will appeal not just to hardcore fans of the site, but to casual readers too.

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