Color Me Skeptical

In what certainly felt like a combination of capitulation and forced buying, US equities accelerated into the close on Wednesday, adding to a historic rally and leaving bulls and bears alike incredulous. The S&P logged its best day since early July, rising for a ninth session in 10, pushing further into overbought territory in the process. Stocks haven't been this extended since the halcyon days following the Trump tax cuts (or, put differently, since the eve of Vol-pocalypse). Notably,

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9 thoughts on “Color Me Skeptical

  1. Where we agree, why not go for a targeted bill?” he wondered.

    I can answer that. Because almost invariably, the GOP would not come back to the table once a smaller, “targeted” package is passed.

  2. Poisonings for political opponents outside the government and helicopter crashes for dissenters within the government.

    This is almost dying to start going short.

  3. I am not sure why all the hand wringing. There never was going to be a deal in august due to senate being out. Mitch was not going to call senate back from campaigning to pursue Democrat priorities. The President bought himself about 30 days dovetailing nicely with Senate schedule.

    Earliest of a vote is late in September when it becomes more clear that Virus is not dying out and when it is more clear the economic pain experienced by the citizenry. In fact pain is what his base wants to maybe a deal is not possible. Only he can sweep Meadows aside and I do not see that happening until his poll numbers weaken. Or alternatively becoming clear that whilst many people may publicly support him in front of vociferous Trumpsters, they may not vote in private for him.

  4. I will also conjecture that trapping Trump into a government shutdown could have been Pelosi’s best case outcome all along. If Trump does not reverse and Pelosi is able to stick him with the shutdown then she may have sealed his fate.

  5. zilch progress does not favor trump, no matter how maniacally he frames it, because even his base won’t really believe his rants and some will get fed up – which dynamic won’t be true on the other side. I think the Dems will therefore pursue a zilch progress strategy on pretty much anything from here on out, and leave it to the voters to opine on how happy they are.

    Which means turning out the base and suppressing voters are the things to watch.

  6. To mitigate ‘disputed US election outcome’ risk, what actions are each state taking to minimize voter fraud ? This is yet another ownership area where the states have ownership responsibilities. As a country, the Feds do not control the voting booths. On another note of ‘who is discouraging voting (or encouraging). The Republican Party of Florida is actually sending mail (which is being delivered) stating ‘request your absentee ballot’ and ‘president trump supports absentee voting’.

    1. The states already take plenty of action to minimize voter fraud even as the president explicitly urges people to actually commit voter fraud. Following the president’s comments, North Carolina even went so far as to explain the checks they have in place and told people how they can validate their vote online.

      It’s become abundantly clear that the president wants to sow as much doubt as possible about the outcome of the election to create one more potential avenue to maintain power. The president has also discouraged voting by mail repeatedly in order to suppress turnout because he thinks more people voting means it is more likely that he will lose (which again he has explicitly stated). Ironically, discouraging mail-in voting is actually a terrible strategy and forcing Republican leaders at the state level to try to counteract his stance because the only people who will listen are his own voters.

      Also, Republicans at a state level absolutely take actions to discourage voting in heavily democratic areas by limiting the number of polling places which leads to longer wait times to vote. Additionally, given the lack of evidence of voting fraud, it’s clear that voter ID laws are intended to disenfranchise democratic-leaning constituents despite what certain politicians want people to believe. If Republicans actually cared about encouraging people to exercise their rights as citizens, there are numerous things they could do that shouldn’t be controversial like making election day a holiday (or just moving election day to a weekend), automatic registration, or even universal mail-in or early in-person voting. There is a reason why one party happens to have excuses as to why none of this is ok even though these are common practices among other developed countries.

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