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Going Nuclear.
"[It's] nothing short of bullying", Chinese Foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said Tuesday, responding to the latest US broadside against Huawei.
Zhao reiterated that China is prepared to retaliate against the move, which aims to close loopholes embedded in previous actions against the company. The Trump administration has worked tirelessly for more than a year to make Huawei a global pariah, but the decision to "almost completely curtail Huawei’s ability to source any semiconductor f
While I’m sure Trump loves punishing Huawei due to his inveterate racism and anti china bias, one is left to assume that his anti china policy isnt “rogue” but represents US establishment policy. If this is true, are we to assume that America’s essential purpose is to inflame the thucydides trap? War with china may be unthinkably unavoidable, but that doesnt mean we should expedite it. China isnt some nation we can “first strike” to victory — setting back their 5g clock a few years will do little more than humiliate them. it is sad that such reflexive cold war thinking still has purchase in US policy circles.
I suspect the plan is to destroy their artificial island chains and maybe kick their navy in the teeth then re-open negotiations given they will still need the US for international trade security. China will lose face so they’ll probably need to get some kind of win like take Taiwan back. China goes back to being the complaint US supplier while they work out their global road plan and India keeps their ground military in check. A quick little dust up with minimal damage to productive capital. Anything resembling a “war” would see mutually assured economic destruction.
With the Apple event on Sept 10, it would not surprise me to see Apple be banded from China the week of that event. It really depends on how China reads the situation. If they are ready to go nuclear, then that is their best play. Apple’s over representation in every index and ETF would topple equities in the US at a time when they are decidedly fragile. China might also see toppling US equities as a positive for Biden and thus a knock-on effect they like. Biden will have a tough on China policy position, but China would rather be pitted against a rational sane person who doesn’t want to go Nero and watch it burn.
Why haven’t they done that yet (or done something similar)? The only thing we know for certain is that Trump is doing this for the benefit of himself. So the escalation of tensions with China he’s hoping will prompt a response that will benefit him. What would that be? A war around Taiwan (rally around the flag)? Does he think a ban of Apple will rally Americans economically? Hell maybe he bought a bunch of Apple puts.
I don’t know the answer but the framework should always be . . what would help Donald Trump.