47.5% Of America’s Private-Sector Workforce Is At Risk. And The Clock Is Ticking
Steve Mnuchin and congressional leaders are rushing to fill the coffers of America's small- and medium-sized businesses, some of which face imminent financial armageddon without a lifeline.
In addition to the $349 billion emergency small-business lending program which was rolled out in haphazard fashion late last week during a frantic push by Mnuchin to get cash into the hands of business owners before anyone else got fired, the Fed is poised to unveil the details of a program for mid-sized com
And the market keeps marching up. Go figure. I know the market is forward looking but this time I think it’s vision is impaired.
H-Man, I get the picture and it is very ugly. Good post.
You’re right. It cannot be allowed to happen — and it won’t. With apologies to Stepanie Kelton, the government doesn’t have the resources to carry 50 percent of the workforce for 2-3 months. Which means shelter-in-place orders will be relaxed and the economy will start to be opened by the end of April, at the latest. That’s what the market is anticipating, at any rate.
So main street America was not great again, under this regime. Hmm who would of thunk it.
If the market marches higher. Baloons to where the rentiers like it.
Half the mom and pops are gone. Those industrial parks are half shut down.
Even Hillaries deplorables may wonder “What?” Most people only vaguely know the stock market exists.
Dual safety net society. Mr Stockmarket got the first class net.
The federal govt can tell governors to lift “shelter in place” orders tomorrow and some governors will, but will consumers and businesses actually resume normal activity?
Some people will go out and congregate as before, Covid cases will re-accelerate, hospitalizations and deaths will climb, and then what?
I guess the economy could sputter along, with some (mostly younger) people blithely going out as normal, and other (including most middle aged and older) people sheltering as much as they can, while hospitals fill up and more friends/family members get sick.
That seems like a very bad economy, maybe not a “zero” but still one in which almost every consumer-facing not-virtual business is losing money worse – and as we are always reminded, 2/3 of the US economy is consumer-driven.
It also seems like the worst possible outcome for Trump’s re-election campaign.
jyl < yes, that, all that. We are so far from the all clear economically let alone medically.
I was optimistic when the Relief legislation first came out. After having gone through the process with multiple small companies and banks, the program is not enough. It will save some jobs, but unemployment will likely be above 20% at the end of the year (after a 40+% peak) under the current system/relief program.
I was thinking initial claims would level off significantly once the PPP was in place. Now, not so much. Maybe there was a pause in layoffs to see if the PPP delivered on its promises. It doesn’t. I expect initial claims of 4+ million combined for the next 2 weeks. The question is when does the initial claims curve flatten/recede. And the idea that everyone gets hired right back, not going to happen under the current system/program.
Thank you for the real world info, I can report here where negative regime sentiment is suppressed businesses are remarkably loud about their frustration with the program.