Vice Chair Clarida Isn’t Sure You’re Getting The Message
As a matter of course, we try to avoid commenting on intraday soundbites from Fed officials who aren't named Jerome Powell because, in case you haven't noticed, someone is on the tape with something pretty much every day.
There's usually some discernible strategy, whereby the procession of speakers are trying to either walk back or reinforce the message from the latest FOMC meeting, and to the extent that strategy is identifiable, there's some utility in documenting how it evolves over the cour
All of what we see day to day on the domestic front is being played out in a greater Geopolitical context… To try to interpret every bit of news without consideration of a bigger picture is tantamount to playing poker with only half of a deck of cards. The fact that there are irrational players involved only makes unintended results more likely . The Chinese and Russians take this process a lot more seriously and with a longer term horizon than do we…. I think !!!!
I am in the peanut gallery I guess. The next Fed move should be a cut, the last move to tighten in my view was not necessary and was an unforced error. The other view is that gdp was 3.2% in q1 payrolls are strong etc. The growth number was soft, final sales were weak. Payrolls are a lagging indicator. All the recent news suggest corporate profits will struggle, and of course the next shoe to drop is production and finally employment. Nominal growth is also low which suggests there is little room for error and the economy is very vulnerable, more than usual to a shock.
Thanks for the write up, H. Watched the live interview and was hoping you were going to do a write up.
Do anyone have a video of the interview from today? The Bloomberg person asked Clarida about restarting QE or if it will be ineffective and was a one time “tool”. Forgot how he (Clarida) responded and sounds like a critical sound bite for considering future inflation implications. Thank you!