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BofA: ‘Yield-Curve Inversion Is No Longer A Reliable Signal For Recession’

This time really is different, apparently.

This time really is different, apparently.
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6 comments on “BofA: ‘Yield-Curve Inversion Is No Longer A Reliable Signal For Recession’

  1. George says:

    No prior over-parsed indicators of any form are reliable indications of any changes in economic conditions to come , when the first and only impulse politicians and central banks have is to tamper with policy and move the expectations often arbitrarily. I do believe Volatility suppression and liquidity shortfalls will rule the day inevitably and by surprise. This is happening as we observe the ongoing chaos that will not have the different outcome it attempts to predict

  2. Anonymous says:

    I have to agree with Koo that it’s still too early to recognize Hume’s fork, that the lingering trauma of GFC and before that the dot com bubble still retards borrowing and spending in the economy (as evidenced by a recent St. Louis Fed paper on Millenial debt, the compression in HY debt and other “safe” investments, and TCJA’s lack of impact on gDp growth, among other indications) significantly enough to warrant the notion that past performance is an indication if future returns.

    That’s exactly why the S&P is back in record territory again…


    • Anonymous says:

      I.e., people right now want predictable results with which to plan and live their lives, and they are seeking safety at the expense of all else.

      I wish them luck…

  3. Anonymous says:

    I hear different Fed governors, at different times, talking about inversion and recession, etc. Any approach like that is on the face of it absurd. And feeling the need to write an article like that is not a sign of any kind of modeling sophistication whatsoever. The only confirmation that seems to be visible here is that a record number of bafoons are in charge of assets.

  4. Anonymous says:

    excellent article

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