Well, suffice to say things didn’t go well on Monday for U.S. equities.
Things got off on the wrong foot when Donald Trump reminded everyone that – and this is a quote – “the outside world [is] blowing up around us, Paris is burning and China [is] way down.”
That, Trump says, is evidence that the Fed shouldn’t hike this week. More lackluster data didn’t help.
Unfortunately, Jeff Gundlach piled on at lunchtime, delivering a series of inflammatory remarks while donning an ostensibly calm demeanor that wasn’t at all consistent with the messaging which, in short, is that stocks are in a bear market and that the Fed would be stupid to hike this week.
Read more
Trump Says ‘World Is Blowing Up Around Us’ Tells Fed To ‘Take The Victory!’
Jeff Gundlach Gets Loose, Tells CNBC We’re In A Bear Market, Says Your SPY Is Crap
This should be obvious, but in case it’s not: The more fearmongering there is about how dangerous a December hike from the Fed would be, the more likely it is to turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Speaking of self-fulfilling prophecies, here’s one:
(Bloomberg)
That’s what happens when a series of Gundlach headlines meet a market that lacks depth/liquidity. It was all downhill after Jeff weighed in. Nothing was green.
(Bloomberg)
Healthcare cracking isn’t great news. It’s one of the few bright spots YTD, so seeing the index test the 200-DMA is somewhat disconcerting (i.e., it just feeds into the “death by a thousand cuts” narrative).
Nooooo pic.twitter.com/N761gFbF0K
— Heisenberg Report (@heisenbergrpt) December 17, 2018
The S&P is now sitting at its lowest levels since October 2017 and the index has de-rated by the seventh most in nearly 70 years. The SPX P/E ratio has fallen by 5 points since the end of last year and that looks like once of the largest drops ever.
(Bloomberg)
The S&P is on track for one of its worst Decembers on record, and this is likely being perpetuated by the ongoing headline hockey around trade, domestic political turmoil and an active community that is loath to participate in the madness.
(Bloomberg)
The Russell is in a bear market – not sure I can add much to that assessment other than to note the obvious which is that small caps were supposed to be the “safe” hiding place from the trade war. So much for that and also so much for one the key “America first” trades.
(Bloomberg)
Crude closed below $50, which I suppose further makes Trump’s case for holding off on another hike, although paradoxically, it’s terrible for risk sentiment as it undermines whatever’s left of the reflation story.
(Bloomberg)
All in all, this is just another session that feeds into the prevailing narrative which basically boils down to the idea that something (whether it’s the data, or the price action, or sentiment or Trump’s sanity) is deteriorating every, single day.
I’m not sure there’s much else you can say about Monday other than: “Thanks Jeff!”
TZA it is for the Xmas money!
Nothing Jeff said was any different from what I and everyone else knows is going on. Why does his talking about it have such an effect when his comments are so yesterday?
Good question.
I think this may be the Coyote looking down and putting up that little EEP! sign.
ok was it sunday in the U2 recording from 30 years ago?
Thanks H for the ongoing education. Who knew talking heads and other sentiment could be so important? Is it possible Sentiment can drive us into the next recession? For no reason other than idiots controlling all the buttons?
Yikes!
what cnbs giveth…cnbs taketh away…
This market was manipulated higher for the last several years by the very factors that are pushing it lower as we speak. Newton’s Law I might facetiously add. So what is everyone complaining about or staring at in disbelief.
Babson and Andrews worked the third law well in Newtonian pitchfork charting.
Markets are down and uncertain since forward, backward, and current guidance ended on November 12th, concurrent with a paywall erected here. Heisenberg Put?
Just to underscore a point i’ve been making all day, I have no issue with people calling out frothy markets and otherwise being bearish when the circumstances warrant.
problem is Gundlach showing up on CNBC on a day when things are fragile, saying absolutely nothing new (i.e., just fearmongering for the sake of fearmongering).
why not put together something insightful and release it as a memo like Howard Marks does? or otherwise say something that’s meaningful?
don’t just show up on CNBC and say “this is a bear market” in a lunchtime interview on a delicate day — he knew damn well what he was doing.