Doubts.

Things were going along reasonably well and then Trump started talking. There were so many soundbites today between his insane Mueller tweets and the veritable deluge of “covfefe” that came amid talks with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, that documenting it all is an exercise in futility.

Generally speaking, this is all you need to know about U.S. stocks today:

  • TRUMP SAYS HE DOUBTS CHINA TRADE TALKS WILL BE SUCCESSFUL

Time stamp it:

ES

Speaking of “doubts”, I doubt whether stocks are going to be able to stomach much more when it comes to rising yields. 3.11 on 10s now – here it is panned out to capture when retail sales hit on Tuesday:

10Y

30Y past 3.25 now (highest since June 2015):

30Y

Overnight, 10Y reals above taper tantrum levels:

Reals

European markets managed to close higher on the day despite ongoing concerns about Italy and what the populist government there is likely to mean for the country’s fiscal position. The bond market has attempted to render its judgement this week with yields spiking…

Italy

… and spreads to bunds blowing out:

BTPBund

For their part, Di Maio and Salvini claim what you see in those charts amounts to “blackmail”.

Italian equities stabilized on Thursday, but still look shaky. Overall, European equities are back to their highest levels since January:

Stoxx600

Meanwhile, at least the pound’s recent weakness is good for something:

FTSE

Crude couldn’t hang on to all of its gains:

WTI

But Brent topped $80 for the first time since 2014 and Goldman thinks there’s more to come:

Brent

This probably should have been a decent day for the real (which, you’re reminded, has been under quite a bit of pressure amid broader EM jitters and electoral uncertainty) after the BCB failed to deliver a Selic cut that was expected by 37 of 39 economists. Instead, USDBRL breached 3.70 despite the BCB hold. This really isn’t great:

USDBRL

The decision not to proceed with (another) rate cut weighed on Brazilian equities. This was at least the second-worst day for the Brazil ETF since the May 18, 2017 circuit-breaker-tripping madness:

EWZ

Remember that piece of shit BRZU? You know, the one that plunged 48% in a day last May? Well it was down ~12% today:

EMZU

Elsewhere in EM, the lira was down again. It’s just a goddamn train wreck there:

USDTRY

This headlines was funny:

  • Turkey’s Erdogan Said to Have Met Gov. Cetinkaya Alone Wednesday

Not helping matters was Carmen Reinhart. To be clear, just about the last thing EM needed was the following:

That’s not likely to help sentiment – at all.

Speaking of things that won’t help sentiment (at all), we’ll leave you for now with Sarah Huckabee Sanders attempting to explain why Trump referred to Mexicans as “animals” on Wednesday:

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2 thoughts on “Doubts.

  1. Good informative recap on current issues. Then, as O’bama would say, you really acted Stupidly with your dishonest and asinine comment re Pres. Trump and “animals.”

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