Yeah, so a couple of things on Monday.
First of all, the Argentine peso fell again, because that’s what happens when there’s an acute crisis of confidence. This thing is basically no-bid:
Tomorrow, they’ll try to roll something like $30 billion in short-term debt which is obviously a dicey scenario in the current environment. Apparently, the central bank (which met with the country’s banks over the weekend to chat about exactly what the hell is going on and talk about tomorrow’s auction) offered $5 billion at 25 in some kind of move to put a floor under this bastard as the market tries to predict what’s next in the ongoing discussions with the IMF.
And look, if you don’t have faith in the IMF to solve Argentina’s problems (and you know, why would you?), then you can rest easy knowing there’s a “very stable genius” on the job:
- TRUMP IN CALL BACKS MACRI’S ECONOMIC INITIATIVES IN ARGENTINA
Predictably, the ongoing train wreck in Argentina is continuing to weigh on EM more broadly. The real had another rough day, moving lower after initially gaining:
Not helping matters there was a new poll that showed the Geraldo Alckmin’s support receding materially under one scenario. That looks like it hit the ETF:
As a reminder, this matters. Recall the following from BofAML’s Michael Hartnett (I have no idea whether the LatAm crowd completely agrees with this assessment, but I think it’s worth keeping it in the front of your mind at least until the EM jitters subside):
Emerging Market tremors: as US higher rates finally caused higher US dollar, EM started to crack; EM FX never lies and a plunge in Brazilian real toward 4 versus US dollar is likely to cause deleveraging and contagion across credit portfolios.
Malaysia was a wild ride, with local markets reopening for the first time since Mahathir Mohamad’s shock election win last week. What started off as a bloodbath ended up being a slight gain:
The ringgit was even more manic. At the open, it was briefly the worst day for the currency since the U.S. election:
But by the time it was all said and done, that was faded entirely:
More broadly, the MSCI Emerging Markets equities index rose for a sixth day, perhaps underscoring the extent to which things are under control.
Our homie Kevin does not think the recent EM weakness is a disaster and if I was still an alcoholic, I’d take him up on this bet, only I wouldn’t be betting a beer, I’d be betting a bottle of Balvenie DoubleWood:
@TgMacro – ok pal, you are all bearish on EEM… Bought from you. Standard bet? One beer? EEM/SPY ratio is currently ticking at 0.1737. Let's put a December 31st deadline on our bet. I'll take over. Loser has to fly to the other guy's city for the beer. pic.twitter.com/63J7xCTQWw
As a reminder, EMFX snapped its longest losing streak since 2015 last week:
But Lisa reminds you it ain’t all good yet:
The biggest local currency emerging-markets ETF just saw its largest weekly outflow since 2016. Meanwhile, investors are pondering whether it's time to start buying EM again. https://t.co/DYJez2LIPe pic.twitter.com/YKIaJkPKDn
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) May 14, 2018
Meanwhile, back at Ponderosa, the dollar moved higher late in the session as Wilbur Ross said some shit about trade:
Treasurys were under pressure all day and you can blame bunds and, more to the point, Villeroy for that (much more here). Here’s 10Y yields:
U.S. stocks were uninspired while their European counterparts were similarly mixed. Oil moved higher on the heels of the OPEC report and amid lingering jitters about Mideast tensions.
Finally, for your moment of zen, Raj is filling in for Hucka-San on Monday when it comes to explaining all of the horrible stories emanating from 1600 Penn.
WATCH: WH Deputy Press Sec. Raj Shah on White House aide who allegedly mocked Sen. John McCain:
"I was told Kelly Sadler called the McCain family late last week and did apologize, and beyond that I don’t have further comment." pic.twitter.com/ciTYpJfU2H
— MSNBC (@MSNBC) May 14, 2018