Storm Clouds Gather As Trump Headline Risk, Terror Attack Battle Econ Data For Market’s Heart

Well, this market’s mettle is being tested. Again. On Monday evening we got what might fairly be described as the worst kind of double-whammy: a WaPo report containing new revelations about Donald Trump’s attempts to obstruct justice in the Russia probe and a terrorist attack that killed 22 people in Manchester. The knee-jerk risk-off move…

Finally Friday: Oil Looks For Weekly Gain; EM, Euro Surge; Merkel Meets America’s Useful Idiot

Well, it’s quiet out there as an exceptionally eventful week (finally) winds down. As we head into the weekend, oil is trying to eek out a gain on the week, after a surprise inventory draw (reported first by API on Tuesday and then confirmed a day later by the weekly EIA print) shored up a…

The First Week Of The Rest Of Your Life

Welcome to the first week of the rest of your life. By now you all know what’s coming and if you don’t, well, you can review the HR weekend reading or you can simply scan the short version here. Overnight, the action found the dollar adrift (although it did bounce a bit later in the…

“WAM!” The “Holy Schatz” Mystery Is Solved

Recall last month’s “holy Schatz!” drama. The front end of the German curve richened materially on a combination of i) ECB buying below the depo rate, and ii) a safe haven bid attributable to French election risk. This created all manner of aberrations and distortions, including but (probably) not limited to, i) iTraxx Main trading…

No Trouble In Little China And Nothing Doing In Oz

It was a relatively quiet overnight session on the news front, although you wouldn’t know it from the number of Bloomberg e-mails in my inbox. China’s FX reserves “unexpectedly” rose in February although I’m not entirely sure why everyone is using the term “unexpectedly” here. Have you heard much lately about the yuan? No? Exactly.…

Beware The German “Hump”

I’ve talked tirelessly (well, I haven’t gotten tired of it, maybe you have) about the extent to which markets are or aren’t correctly pricing event risk around Europe’s trio of electoral trials by fire. For obvious reasons, the French elections have gotten the most attention. That’s probably justified given the fact that there’s a non-negligible…