Listen, Fundstrat Global Advisors’ Tom Lee is a guy who knows Bitcoin, ok?
We’ve been over this before. Remember, Tom is the guy who, back in October, “correctly” predicted that Bitcoin would rise above $20,000.
He was “right”, but the only problem is, his time frame for Bitcoin > $20,000 was (roughly) five years. It was above $20,000 within 2 fucking months of Tom’s prediction.
As we wrote last month of Lee’s “call”, “sure, you got the direction right, but that move from $4,000 to $20,000 in two months certainly seems to suggest that you were so wildly wrong when it comes to the trajectory that as far as whether you know what you’re talking about is concerned, it might as well have just gone to zero.”
And so do you know what Tom did? Well, Tom raised his 2022 “target” for Bitcoin to $125,000, that’s what Tom did. That was on January 18. Here’s how that’s developed:
Of course Bitcoin has quietly (to the extent Bitcoin does anything “quietly”) rebounded, reclaiming $10,000 while everyone was laser-focused on things that actually matter like the economy and the Fed and actual, real assets.
But don’t you think for a second that just because the rest of the world is focused on real assets that Tom isn’t still focused on make-believe internet money because he absolutely is and in his latest prognostication he says Bitcoin will likely make fresh highs by the middle of this year.
What’s he basing that on, you ask? Well, nothing, obviously. But here’s what counts for “something” in his mind (via Bloomberg):
Based on an analysis of the 22 corrections of 20 percent or more that the digital coin has seen since 2010, Lee determined that in “bull” periods, Bitcoin takes about 1.7 times the duration of its decline to recover. That time frame implies that it will take 85 days for the cryptocurrency to fully bounce back from its latest plunge, which lasted for 50 days — meaning it should rise to fresh records by midyear.
Needless to say, that’s fucking laughable and not necessarily because he won’t be proven “right”, but rather because he has no better idea about where Bitcoin is going than you or me and he never will.