Let’s say you’re an analyst. And let’s say the asset you’re analyzing is currently sitting at roughly $4,000. Based on your extensive understanding of that asset, you predict prices will rise to $25,000 in the space of five years.
Ok, fast forward less than two months from your prediction and the asset in question has quintupled to $20,000. What would your gut feeling be about your previous call? If you’re being honest, you’re probably going to admit (if only to yourself) that you don’t have the first clue about where prices are heading and you never did.
If you predicted $25,000 from $4,000 over a five-year period and two months later prices had gone to say, $5,500, well then maybe you’re onto something. But there’s a sense in which you look just as clueless if you call for an asset trading at $4,000 to hit $25,000 in five years only to see it go to $20,000 in less than two months, as you would if you called for it to hit $25,000 in five years and it subsequently went to zero within 60 days.
Sure, you got the direction right, but that move from $4,000 to $20,000 in two months certainly seems to suggest that you were so wildly wrong when it comes to the trajectory that as far as whether you know what you’re talking about is concerned, it might as well have just gone to zero.
Well what I just described is what happened to Fundstrat Global Advisors’ Tom Lee. Here’s the chart:
I’m sorry, but that means Tom’s just guessing. Plain and simple. If I told you Apple was going to $1,200 by 2022 and it was at $1,000 by Valentine’s Day, would you be more inclined to call that “prescient” or would you be more inclined to say that maybe something is going on with Apple shares that I didn’t factor into my model? Yeah, exactly.
So when that same Tom Lee comes out and says Bitcoin is going to $125,000 by that same 2022 that just three months ago he claimed was the perfect time for Bitcoin $25,000, you should probably take that with a whole shaker full of salt.
“Bitcoin’s recent slide isn’t discouraging for crypto bull Thomas Lee, who predicts that the value of the digital-coin market will roughly double to more than $1.2 trillion this year,” Bloomberg writes, adding that “Lee expects the price of one Bitcoin will surge to $125,000 by 2022, 400% higher than his forecast from October, when he said the top digital token may reach $25,000 over the same period.”
Hilariously, Lee says he expects returns to be lower in 2018 than they were in 2017.
Again, don’t buy into this senseless bullshit. This isn’t based on anything. It’s pure, unadulterated speculation.