10Y apple dollar Dow emerging markets europe eurostoxx FX hang seng hong kong S&P 500

Soooo… Can I Still Go Golfing?

Is it Friday yet?

Well, Thursday was dominated by headline hockey around the looming government shutdown and predictably, Trump made sure to inject as much confusion and blame-casting as possible into an already fraught situation:

There was more, but do you really want to read it? For shits and giggles, here’s a history of asset prices during shutdowns via Goldman (more here):


Apparently, Senate Republicans are working a stopgap bill as a last resort. And speaking of “resorts”: TRUMP NONCOMMITAL ON WHETHER HE’LL GO TO FLA. AS SHUTDOWN LOOMS


“Soooo…. I can still go golfing, right?”

Treasurys fell and 10Y yields broke above 2.60 to the highest since March.


Some of the move higher in yields is being attributed to speculation that Apple will end up selling Treasurys to pay the tax liability when it repatriates cash. Also, this is funny:


I’d love to have seen the exchange that went into Trump getting patched through. “Mr. Cook, Donald Trump is on the line, do you want to take this?”

But higher yields didn’t help the dollar which is laboring under the shutdown threat. It was a seesaw session but ultimately, the sheer number of competing headlines made it impossible for the greenback to gain any traction. Bottom line is this: three-year low.


There’s a vociferous debate about the extent to which repatriation flows are going to boost the greenback. Long story short, the consensus is “not really,” although a BofAML note making the rounds on Thursday challenges that assumption.

Take note of the trend here:


In the same vein, the Cboe EM ETF volatility index was up at one point today marking three consecutive sessions (it would later fall) even as EM stocks are near the highest since May 2008.


In Europe, the SX4P rocketed higher, apparently on this headline which hit around 10:45 New York time:


Obviously, that was good news for the DAX which ended up being the outperformer in an otherwise lackluster European session:


As noted first thing this morning, H-shares got a nice boost on Thursday from upbeat China econ. The Hang Seng China Enterprise Index soared 1.8% to its highest since June 2015. That’s 15 straight days of gains, the longest streak ever. It’s sitting at its highest level since the summer of 2015 when China’s margin-fueled equity “miracle” ended in tears:


Bitcoin recovered, rising above $12,000 at one point and if you want to know why this is not “a store of value” (where that means you can expect some semblance of stability), look no further than this visual:


Oh, and for your moment of zen, here’s Ivanka Trump to explain how great the tax plan is (a tax plan which benefits her family to the tune of roughly $1.1 billion – with a “b”):


4 comments on “Soooo… Can I Still Go Golfing?

  1. It always helps me to understand the context – in terms of both the history and trends in US. gov. spending, debt, deficits and so we all know where Trump is taking us. In my opinion this is a great and complementary site (to H’s). It’s put together by Christopher Chantrill: (

    You should also note the other pages on the site with our governments financial relationships to silly things debt to GDP.

  2. well, “Mr. Cook, Donald Trump is on the line, do you want to take this?” and Cook then said “Jr. or Sr.?” and then declined the call.

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