democrats GOP populism steve bannon

In Watershed Moment, Democrats Now Have Largest Lead In Voter Preference Since 2008

Well in the latest evidence to suggest that the public is turning against the GOP, a new NBC/WSJ poll shows that...

Well in the latest evidence to suggest that the public is turning against the GOP, a new NBC/WSJ poll shows that...
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2 comments on “In Watershed Moment, Democrats Now Have Largest Lead In Voter Preference Since 2008

  1. For a deeper analysis of this, head over to 538 and check out Entgen’s take on all this.

  2. We shouldn’t conflate a national poll, the Electoral College (only for Presidential elections) and Congressional District elections. We can’t derive any information about Congressional Districts from a national polling – unless it specifically sorts results by Congressional Districts – which info in the article refd. did not show. However, we can make trend inferences based on current events like: “Bannon, Trump, and Moore leading directly to devastating losses (R) like those which played out in Virginia and Alabama.” That said its a long three years and a lot of Russian troll farm social media propaganda until Trump comes up on the average voters radar screen again.

    Generally and historically, the Electoral College (EC) has only become a factor when there is less than a 3% difference between the popular vote and the Electoral College. The four elections historically decided by the Electoral College – exhibit this:
    – Hayes – 1876 lost the pop. vote by 3%,
    – Harrison – 1888 by 0.8%,
    – G.W. Bush 2000 by 0.5%, and
    – most recently by Trump – 2016 by 2.1%.

    There are additional general observations that might be made regarding the Presidents that the E.C. decisions have produced:
    1. They were all Republicans.
    2. Trump illustrates the continuing Republican need for the EC.
    3. The Presidents that E.C. seated in the White House have historically been judged to be at best average (Hayes) or poorer (Bush – worst until Trump) to the overall of 45 Presidents. Harrison generally is not ranked because he died of pneumonia after only 31 days in office.
    4. Each Electoral College decided President appears to have had a successively lower popularity when he left office (we can only use Trump’s current 31-36% approval rating and the lowest in the history of US Presidents 1st year in office) as to what it might be when he leaves office.

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