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‘Where The Wild Things Are’
On Friday evening, we brought you some excerpts from the latest note by Deutsche Bank's Aleksandar
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we get it. the best explanation and easiest example to understand i have seen todate.
when the herd see’s it–it will be too late i.e. vol of vol.
but for now, us in the long vol/short market camp will suffer and the longer this takes the more dramatic the pullback (common knowledge). i have waited a good long while to fill vnx and i will take a 1/3 position on any NAZ spike monday morning (my last trade to fill). i will admit i got in too early (long vol/short market). my previous guess-ta-mets was a pull back in the spx to 1850/1875. my previous advisors said it was coming late 2016/early 2017. this was not the case.
graphing charts and adding % best guess last night i came up with an spx at 1595.
not pretty.
i hope others chime in on this thought. some of us could use a some other opinions /target numbers for the indexes, indu, naz, sp and vix.
thanks again to Mr. H. and all of his friends for sharing the truth.
good luck too all.
sb
I seen nothing standing in the way of 3,300 on the SPX. That’s more than a 4 cap on forward earnings and forward earnings have had a habit of being too conservative. At current SPX, we are looking at nearly a 5.5% cap rate. The 10 year yield would have to exceed 3.2% to get in the way of this trend. Corporate America at a 100 bps spread to the Treasury is still a good deal.