‘Reckless And Outrageous’

Think back – way back. All the way back to yesterday’s market wrap when we said the following about the kind of day Donald Trump had to start the week:

Incredibly, Trump managed to get through the day without doing anything too egregious – I mean, he told 40 million people that the widow of a dead soldier is a liar, but as far as Trump goes, that’s small potatoes. Normally by the closing bell he’s tried to start a nuclear war and berated a half-dozen sitting Senators, so all in all, a quiet day.

Fast forward to Tuesday aaaaand

Bob

Bob2

Was

That’s more like it.

 

So obviously, that bodes well for tax reform and as far as whether Devin Nunes and Trey Gowdy are going to succeed in distracting the public from the Russia probe by investigating the investigation (and no, there are no typos there) into Hillary Clinton’s e-mail server, the answer would appear to be “no”…

The hilarious thing about that “incident” is that it came as Trump was attending a luncheon that was also attended by the very same Bob Corker who he spent the entire morning tweeting about.

So yeah, it’s going great.

Also this afternoon we got this:

  • SEN. JEFF FLAKE WON’T SEEK REELECTION, ARIZONA REPUBLIC REPORTS

That headline immediately hit the dollar. “Flake can defy Donald Trump without any lasting repercussions — including potentially voting against the tax bill when it arrives,” Bloomberg’s Cameron Crise noted. Watch this:

Yes: “reckless and outrageous.”

And this didn’t help either:

  • Republican Sens. Bob Corker, John McCain, Rand Paul may not support tax overhaul, CNBC reports, citing an unidentified adviser to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

But amusingly, the dollar weakness engendered by all of that was promptly faded when this hit:

Here’s the comical gyrations (you’ll note the initial move lower in the dollar was not mirrored in yields, whereas both reacted to the Taylor headline):

DollarYields

“Bigly” day for the Dow, rising triple digits on earnings beats:

Stocks

Let’s just go ahead and call it “overbought” for 16 consecutive days or just call it “reckless and outrageous”:

SPXOverbought

Trump is excited (“jobs looking good” from where he’s sitting):

Stocks

That means the national debt is lower today by Trump’s reasoning.

Here are some fun vol. charts for you that certainly seem to suggest market participants are asleep at the wheel:

volGS3

Again, “reckless and outrageous” considering the car those same napping investors are driving is doing about 184mph down the freeway.

You shouldn’t worry about this (“believe me”):

VVIX

“Fear not”:

Fear

Oil was up, with WTI near a 6-month high. Early on Tuesday, reports suggested that while OPEC negotiates the extension of production cuts until the end of 2018, it’s simultaneously working on an exit strategy in what Bloomberg says is “an effort to reassure investors it won’t flood the market once the curbs finally expire.” Here’s a bullet point headline summary:

  • OPEC is said to work on exit strategy alongside cuts extension
    • Move is an effort to reassure investors it won’t flood the market once the curbs finally expire
    • The talks, still at a preliminary stage, are complementary to the cuts and designed to improve their impact in 2018, people familiar with the matter said
    • Full strategy probably won’t be unveiled until later in 2018
  • Saudi oil minister: All options open on output cuts decision
  • Qatar will support extending OPEC output cuts: Sada

WTI

Good day for GM (earnings):

GM

And if you are a global economic doomsayer, you will be disappointed to know that CAT beat:

CAT

Here’s another chart for the bulls:

CAT2

Oh, and in one final example of things that are “reckless and outrageous”, the Nikkei rose for a 16th consecutive session:

Nikkei

How far can that run? Well, just ask Nikko Asset Management:

“You will ride eternal”, reckless, gold leaf, and outrageous…

Reckless

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