UBS: Bitcoin Selloff Was Worse Than Weimar, Crypto Will ‘Never’ Be True Currency

21 thoughts on “UBS: Bitcoin Selloff Was Worse Than Weimar, Crypto Will ‘Never’ Be True Currency”

1. It just boils down to what your faith is in

   1. Ohh,,,,and the rest of the lemmings

2. stay mad, no-coiner. It’ll be a bubble at 6k, 10k, 20k, 50k, and 100k also. It’ll be a bubble when people realize they don’t have to lose money to inflation every year by letting it sit in a bank.

   You can invest in your index funds of companies that you believe in. I’ll invest in blockchain technology. We’ll see who wins and who ends up crying about how it’s not fair.

   1. BRAVO, BRAVO!!

      1. https://twitter.com/heisenbergrpt/status/918867174231625728

         1. I’m just sitting back and watching my Beanie Baby holdings just climb and climb in value. But why do those profits have to be quoted in the USD. Should be Beanie Shares.

         2. HAHA NICE ONE. DO THEY ACCEPT PAYMENTS FROM YOUR 401K, OR WOULD YOU HAVE TO CASH OUT YOUR INVESTMENT FIRST? ILL WAIT FOR YOU TO REPLY ON A DIFFERENT WEBSITE.

3. Pure bartering would be total chaos and impossible in many situations…..one person may think his donkey is worth twice the other guy’s…..and the transaction would not take place….
   Evaluating the store of value to everyone’s satisfaction needs a common denominator…..expediency is necessary….

   The perceived value of “Faith “in each currency “floats” everyday…..as does Bitcoin’s
   I personally have more faith in the US govt than the creators of Bitcoin……

4. Right on. I think I’ll put you down as a “no”

5. If you aren’t aware that most investors are cognitvely impared you are an idiot. If you aren’t riding along on house money right now you are a bigger idiot.

6. Good article. Agree with your perspectives. I keep waiting for China or Russia to execute its first Bitcoin or other cryptocurrency users. Cryptocurrency users that they have been “convicted” of “attempting to destabilize and or overthrow the respective countries central government.” Its one thing to pay lip service to cryptocurrency regulation as a threat to central banks, it’s quite another to imprison and or execute cryptocurrency users – and its impacts on cryptocurrency exchanges.

   I also think it is worth noting that all digital assets and especially cryptocurrencies are based on an absolute assumption that the internet is forever. That assumption lies on a collision course with daily events. For example – almost daily claims by N. Korea that they will make high altitude nuclear tests. The global Internet’s (and cryptocurrencies’ greatest physical/electronic vulnerability) comes from massive EMP events – either natural (From cyclical solar coronal discharges – solar flares.) and or man made EMP weapons (Weapons created with… wait for it… high altitude nuclear detonations.) – you know, just like the ones N. Korea is working on now.

   In the modern world – EMP weapons are particularly attractive to aggressors because they don’t destroy physical assets (buildings, roads, food, water, work force etc.) of the country attacked, just their mostly unshielded digitally controlled electrical equipment, critical communications, unshielded weapon guidance systems and resource distributions systems and making a subsequent takeover/invasion that much easier than previous warfare strategies that involve massive infrastructure and population destruction in order to conquer (i.e. WWII).

   Storing digital assets in digital record (blockchain or otherwise) systems that have no corresponding immutable physical record, or durable and utilitarian physical collateral assets – almost guarantees their future loss and the annihilation of those digital assets. An EMP initiated collapse of the Internet (regional or global) and related digital server and databases means digital assets – even if digital records remain intact – they would be difficult to impossible to access.

   All that said, Bitcoin and perhaps other cryptocurrencies will continue to attract the fleece-able sheep traders – because it has BitCoin undeniably has been a hell’va trend trade – but that is all that it was. IMO – investing in non-crypto currency applications of blockchain technology such as materials and food source record and tracking applications is a far more probable, durable and successful long term crypto tech investment – though far less volatile than Bitcoin.

7. Bla-bla-bla. Winners just trade the charts and don’t care about the BS “fundamentals” that the suits spin.

   But keep believing in the invincibility of government (even though history proves nothing could be more wrong). I say great because we need a sucker on the other, losing side of the believe-in-government trade!

   The distributed guys (blockchain currency) will win the currency war over big centralized government, just like the distributed guys (mobile cloud computing) won the I/T war over big centralized computing. As it should be (unless you’re authoritarian).

   1. IRB – if the flimsy government(s) (that you seem to think crypto currency protects you from) actually go down – how long does the internet continue to operate and be maintained by people being paid under that government’s fiat currency. Do they stay up and running on their faith in cryptocurrency? How long does a cryptocurrency stay up and accessible after a national economy collapses and local cryptocurrency markets have no fiat currency base to exchange and convert to and or to have and continue limited payment options with cryptocurrency?

      Do Bitcoin employees get paid in Bitcoin? If they did they would have to immediately convert it into fiat currency to have broad product market access. While I agree that governments may well adopt blockchain technology based digital fiat currencies in the near future, how does that make your Bitcoin or Litecoin, Ethereum – or another cryptocurrency – more valuable? In fact, if national treasuries and central banks adopt a national blockchain fiat currency – who needs the private ones? There are no patents for blockchain technology and certainly none belonging to any cryptocurrency. What little IP asset value there is – is based on patentable applications of blockchain technology, but not block chain itself. Consequently, the better and more proximate and scalable applications for block chain are – not likely to be private cryptocurrencies, but rather by those applications that have the ability to scale to far greater levels and without competition from treasuries and central bank – who will win any battle against cryptocurrency – even if it is simply to join them (thereby eliminate legal cryptocurrency demand) and employ blockchain in national currency evolution.

      1. First, when I posted “bla bla bla”, that was in reference to the article, not your post which just happened to immediately precede my post.

         I don’t feel like responding but I will briefly because your typically sensible, thoughtful posts (like on obamacare and above) deserve that courtesy.

         Anyway I merely contend that crypto won’t go to zero like H always does (and I contended previously that the charts were saying new highs were coming). I never asserted that BTC will become a common medium of exchange; I don’t know about that (possibly, eventually?); obviously that’s a long way off and it’s far too volatile yet.

         But no doubt the payments environment will evolve to a different framework than it is today, though I’ve no idea what. History shows that people long transacted before without fiat and they shall again. Historically, governments have routinely canceled or replaced fiat. History also shows that people in even great civilizations have eventually had to refuse their failing sovereign currency and turned to other things like rice, seashells, coins issued elsewhere, private banknotes, or commodities including gold & silver as money to transact. Even when government decrees against it, as typically happens during its final desperate throes. And that’s the likely future of USD, which will probably go to zero while bitcoin persists, IMHO and in the opinion of Bill Gates (reference his assertion in February about bitcoin’s bright future and decision to move a portion of his wealth into it).

         1. I think your perception of the USD going to zero and the resulting economy – including to operate utilities, basic telecommunications – and the internet without US currency isn’t well considered. This is the ongoing weakness for all cryptocurrency – they are even more dependent on a stable economy and currency than other forms of exchange (assuming use and acceptance rates for cryptocurrency is at the current or even near current minimal levels). If a country loses its economic ability to pay employees, operating costs, etc. the entire system crashes – indefinitely. We just haven’t seen this in modern times. Again, how do you think BitCoin mining and transactions are doing right now in Puerto Rico – or even in lots of E. Texas. The physical disaster of a hurricane is not less damaging to a national utility and communication system – than the inability of companies to pay salaries for a prolonged period.

            1. USD will go to zero as all government-issued currencies have gone to zero throughout history given enough time, usually within some decades (or less) but occasionally not for a few centuries. From an historical perspective, the dollar ‘s life cycle is now quite mature.

               So I’d bet anyone (in bitcoin, not dollars, of couse) that USD will go to zero in my lifetime. The cool thing is if I lose the bet, I will be dead HA-HA.

               Regarding your examples of crypto being vulnerable to a natural disaster or other catastrophe, in fact it’s quite the opposite. Because crypto is a *distributed* system, it does not have a single point of failure like the USD and other gov’t fiat. The entire US could go offline in a disaster or a Kim EMP strike or something, and although crypto could be non-functional in the US as a result, crypto would continue to be operational and usable somewhere else. An American could get out of the US with his crypto wealth intact, unencumbered and useable elsewhere in the world (provided the entire world didn’t go off). In contrast, the dollar has a single point of failure, namely the US government, which is far more vulnerable to failure than is the entirety of the whole.

               Further, because fiat is increasingly an electronic currency (like 99% of dollar value is transacted electronically now, and physical cash is only a tiny fraction of the money supply), USD is almost as vulnerable as crypto to a massive electronic failure. If the gird fails catastrophically, the crypto won’t work in the affected area but neither will the ATM’s, banks, or credit/debit cards. Cash will, but very little cash exists anymore, and governments are moving toward cashless as a matter of policy in their hunt for taxes etc. Should the grid go out across the US, both your electronic USD and crypto won’t help you in the US, but the difference is, your crypto will save your ass abroad where the dollar won’t. Fiat is not legal tender outside its country of issue, and all fiat transactions/transfers must clear through its home country. Not so with crypto!.. So the distributed guys WIN again!

               Finally, the claim by some that government is going to shutdown crypto rings hollow. Its distributed architecture is similar, but better, than bit torrent, which government has been trying to shutdown for 15 years without success… lol.

            2. i do wish you the best of luck with it. sincerely. i just think you are underestimating what government can and can’t do. it is never – ever – a good idea to dare the government to do something. it is even less of a good idea to dare the government to do something and then bet money that they won’t call your bluff.

            3. No dares and no underestimating what the government fascists will try to do. It’s just that to send BTC to zero, I think that government will need the cooperation of every other government to kill it, including an agreement among all governments globally to ban it and then actually spend scare resources to enforce that ban. Not going to happen. Or not going to happen effectively enough… and if they try, BTC will continue under the radar as most things do that people want, until the worm eventually turns as it always does, the government mood shifts and the stuff comes back strong again. It’s called a “cycle”.

            4. By the way, me saying USD will go to zero isn’t the same as saying there won’t be any US currency. Historically, currencies come and go. Could be a result of debt repudiation, hyperinflation, revolution, war, etc.

               You know that the IMF and much of the Davos elite fancy replacing national currencies with one world currency? It’s actually gaining some traction and also a number of fools in the US are sympathetic to it too as they’re apparently blind to how the Euro is (not) working out. Anything can happen in a big crisis like the one that lies ahead, the crisis that “printing press” Powell and Yellen say won’t happen in our lifetime and are ill-prepared & incapable of handling. So, BRACE!

   2. P.S. “Charts” and their trends are a part of “fundamentals” analysis.

      1. They’re different animals, at least to a market technician. But don’t believe me, instead see Jim Simons, who ran about the most successful fund of all time. Renaissance completely disregarded all fundamental considerations and went 100% systematic technical. He explains why and the difference in his talk about his life’s experience.