I Don’t Want To Be Disappointed.

We got some decent econ on Wednesday as real GDP was revised up to +3.0% in the second estimate for Q2. That’s the fastest pace in two years.

GDP

Meanwhile, ADP at 237k versus a 185k estimate didn’t hurt either.

That was offset by a tweet that suggested Trump is sick of talking about North Korea and would rather just bomb them so we can finally put this issue to bed, even if that means killing a couple of million people. In that respect, it’s a lot like his planned Obamacare overhaul.

Later, Trump gave a largely nebulous speech in Missouri ostensibly about tax reform. To the surprise of exactly no one, it turned into a rambling affair complete with shoutouts to Ivanka, a call for Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill to be “voted out of office,” a warning to Congress that he “doesn’t want to be disappointed”, and also a plug for his red #MAGA hats (seriously). Here’s a clip:

That’s amusing, because I imagine a lot of the Target managers-turned hedge fund titans were screaming the same thing at their E*Trade screens today and yesterday: “I am fully committed to working with XIV to get. This. Job. Done. And I don’t want to be disappointed.

And while Trump will invariably be “disappointed”, the dip-buyers were not, because the S&P just rose for the fourth-straight session, the best streak since late May while the Nasdaq rose for a third day, its best run in a month:

Stocks

Ultimately, the best way to get a handle on what’s going on is to simply pan out on S&P futs, the dollar and yields to get a sense of what’s happened since Kim shot a missile over Japan:

StocksDollarYields

That pretty much sums it up. It’s been smooth sailing since the opening bell on Tuesday as the world essentially believes the likes of Jim Mattis won’t end up letting Trump bomb Pyongyang.

The broad dollar rose for a second day on Wednesday and the euro has come off considerably after vaulting above 1.20:

DOllarEuro

Gold has similarly settled down, dropping from its post-missile highs:

GOld

We got the EIA data as usual, but divining anything is complicated by Harvey. Here are the numbers:

  • U.S. crude inventories fell -5.39m bbl to 457.8m last week, ninth straight decline, to lowest since January 2016
  • Gasoline supplies +35k bbl to 229.9m
  • Crude production +2k b/d to 9.53m b/d

Crude’s sitting near a 6-week low:

Oil

Gasoline is at a 2-year high, for obvious reasons and at one point touched $1.9231, the highest since July 2015.

Gasoline

“The inventory reductions for the year are very bullish,” Matt Sallee, who manages  some $16 billion in oil-related assets at Tortoise Capital Advisors, told Bloomberg adding that “refinery outages are certainly supporting gasoline prices [and] the market right now is more worried about the tropical storm than they are about the weekly inventory.”

European shares rebounded after falling to a six-month low on Tuesday on North Korea jitters:

Europe

The yuan pared gains, but it’s riding an incredible hot streak that raises questions about exactly what the PBoC is thinking in terms of priorities:

USDCNH

Finally, as for what happens if Congress does “disappoint” Trump…

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One thought on “I Don’t Want To Be Disappointed.

  1. Very funny, Reichstag….critical fuve months ahead. What opportunistic options are we giving our adversaries? That is the big question.

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