Assuming you haven’t been living the life of a hermit for the past five or so weeks, you know that some folks got it wrong in terms of positioning in crude.
Going into the rather harrowing collapse in oil prices that unfolded ~three weeks ago, the net spec long in oil looked like this:
And then oil did this:
Oops. Turns out there’s only so much market participants can take when it comes to vacuous promises about a market balancing being “just around the corner” only to watch as record US production and ever higher stockpiles take their psychological toll on the bull thesis.
Well, three weeks, one pointless meeting in Kuwait, and a whole bunch of headlines saying the exact same thing later, and oil longs have trimmed their bullish bets for five consecutive weeks. Specifically, specs pared 20K contracts and as you can see from the following chart, some folks are getting nervous about the whole “just around the corner” thesis…
Just something to keep in mind as you filter all the “oil is back above $50” celebratory banter.