dollar euro FX geert wilders germany yen

“Trump’s Political Capital Is Getting Consumed”: One Simple Trade Idea For The Week Ahead

Think about the events that transpired over the last two weeks. Now think about them in terms of the following two frameworks for how things could have gone. Fed comes out hawkish, guns ablazin', Geert Wilders puts up a better-than-expected showing in the Dutch elections, the GOP health care bill moves forward Fed comes out timid with a dovish spin on the March hike, Wilders' support wanes in Dutch elections, GOP healthcare bill fails Framework one is dollar bullish. The euro dips on populism fears, a hawkish hike underpins the dollar by driving rate differentials wider as yields rise in the US while bunds are bid amid risk-off behavior in Europe, a positive outcome for Trump on healthcare bodes well for tax reform further underpinning the greenback. Framework two is dollar bearish. The euro is buoyed by Wilders' defeat, an uber dovish Fed pushes Treasury yields lower and UST-bund spreads narrow, further underpinning EURUSD, and the failure of the GOP healthcare bill and a protectionist slant to the G20 puts further pressure on the greenback. Needless to say, framework two prevailed. With that as the backdrop, consider the following from Barclays who is out with a trade ide
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