What Trade War? Market Is Mispricing The Swans (Again)

If I've said it once (and I'm pretty sure I have), I've said it a thousand times: the market is terrible at pricing the tails. And while, by definition, you can't price in "black" swans, you can price in "grey" ones (aside: do yourself a favor and use the Nassim Taleb lexicon with caution because frankly, a good portion of it is completely nonsensical). Well, if you're looking for a swan that could be classified as "grey" rather than "black," that swan is a trade war with China. After all,