Oh, and for the rabid Apple fans, remember that I’m just the messenger here – and one does not shoot the messenger…
Month: January 2017
Daily Kickstart (Dollar In Focus As UK Court Rules; Lira Plunges)
On Monday evening I said I’d likely find myself talking about the dollar again first thing
Key Calls (Tuesday): Upgrades, Downgrades, & Initiations
Are your stocks on the list?
The “Scariest Chart In The World”
One thing everyone wants to know: with all the geopolitical uncertainty out there, why is the
Dollar Doldrums Continue Into Monday Evening As Reflation Trade Unwind Rolls On
Well, Monday ended the same way Monday began. For the early risers who catch the
Monday Night Humor (“White Men, Assemble!”)
“One pick at a time”…
Monday Humor (Crude Lemmings)
“This year, only 15% of respondents are underweight and comfortable with that position, down from 65% in early 2016.”
Warning: Currencies Will “Remain Volatile”
Regular readers will recall that if you’re in equities, one of your main concerns going
No Liquidity, No Cash, No Fun
Oh, and here’s the worst part: you see how there’s no market for these bonds? Well when people start selling the ETFs, you’d better hope fund managers aren’t depending on cash balances to meet redemptions, because…
Populism At Work: Sovereign Risk Rises In France
The market will render its own judgement…
Chart Check (Great Wall Of Defaults)
The charade can only last so long…
One Bank Sees “Further Clear-Out” For Dollar Longs
The dollar is the story of the day so far and the trade is basically all about what comes out of Trump’s mouth or the mouths of his inner circle. In other words, it looks like anything they say is going to be seen as verbal intervention in FX markets whether they intend it or not.
Key Calls (Verizon May Be Too Damn Expensive)
“Can you hear me now?”
Daily Kickstart (Dollar Slumps After Bombastic Trump Speech)
If it was a weaker dollar Trump wanted he’s certainly gotten it in the days following his bombastic inauguration speech which was seen by the rest of the world (with the possible exception of Marine Le Pen) as a de facto declaration of war.
Key Calls: Upgrades, Downgrades, & Initiations For Monday
“Proof” that analysts are actually at work.
China Clowns America; Says Trump Will “Set Fire” To His Own House, Rest Of World
“Undoubtedly, the Trump administration will be igniting many ‘fires’ on its front door and around the world. Let’s wait and see when it will be China’s turn.”
Is The Record Treasury Short A Contrarian Indicator? This Scatter Plot Has The Answer
One of the most asked questions (well, I don’t have any data on that, but I assume a lot of people are asking) is this: is the record short a contrarian indicator?
“Time To Get Creative”: This Isn’t The Place For Joe ETF
With spreads having come in as much as they have, there’s not much left for average investors.
Stocks Bore Me, But People Sure Do Love A Good Bullish Thesis
One thing to note at the outset: the idea that because piling fiscal stimulus atop an overheating economy is likely to drive inflation and therefore people will buy stocks, has a major flaw. Namely that if most of the “benefit” from fiscal stimulus goes to inflation and not growth, then it’s exceedingly likely that you’ll get a poor growth-inflation outcome (i.e. stagflation).
Sunday Humor (“Facts”)
“You’re saying it’s a falsehood, and Sean Spicer, our press secretary, gave alternative facts to that.â€
Chart Check (Theory Vs. Reality)
For the history buffs…
10 Black Swans
The amusing thing about this (to me anyway) is that it is to a certain extent emblematic of markets’ overwhelming tendency to misprice the tails. These pieces almost read like a guide to the unthinkable – “here’s what happens if everything just goes to complete sh*t”…
“Tweet Risk” Is Now Officially Part Of The Wall Street Lexicon
Analysts are now forced to take Trump’s tweets into account when commenting on the prospects for specific stocks. That, in turn, has led to the contention that idiosyncratic risk will almost invariably rise during Trump’s presidency. It’s thus very possible that Donald Trump could single-handedly bring about a shift in inter-market correlations.
Caption Contest (Epic Michelle Obama Inauguration Edition)
Not feelin’ it…
Chart Check (“I Am An Oil Man”)
I’m not at al all sure that this is a good idea…
Uncertainty, “The Highly Improbable”, Goldman Sachs, And Some Swamp Draining
The “highly improbable” has become more probable lately. At least that’s my contention. The paradox –
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