Chart Check (“I Am An Oil Man”)

Given the prospects for a rising dollar and the fact that US producers don’t seem to understand that pumping more now is just sowing the seeds of their own destruction by offsetting OPEC production cuts and thereby keeping a lid on price increases, I am not at all sure that this is a good idea…

oil

(Charts: Deutsche Bank)

Via Deutsche Bank

Extreme long positioning and overvaluation in oil remains a big risk. Long positioning in oil has climbed further to new record highs. However over-valuation has moderated somewhat, largely as the dollar has declined. But overvaluation at 45% is still above the 30% historical band that has marked extremes extremes ($48 for the WTI currently).

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