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The Black Swans Cometh
Want to see something scary? Look no further than SocGen's latest black swan chart, which the bank updates on a fairly regular basis.
The thing that's particularly interesting about the "outliers" the bank says pose the most realistic threat in 2017 is that in my mind, they're virtually all almost certain to play out. Does that mean we shouldn't call them "black swans" anymore? I don't know but I think you'll agree that political uncertainty, a sharp rise in bond yields, a Chinese hard landing,
The hard landing in China is not visible yet. We also do not (yet) have trade wars. Yes, that may happen, but in that case everybody looses. More protectionism is already happening and will continue to rise. Bond yields may drop, once it is clear that we are headed for a global recession. Political uncertainty is mainly a reflection of problems “under the hood”, that is in the real economy.
BLACK SWAN IS HERE 2020!!!!!