“While this has allowed the Fed to have its cake and eat it too at the March meeting, in our view there could be a bigger sign from the markets to the Fed: financial conditions could be at the cusp of signaling that policy is behind the curve.”
Have you put on your flatteners? That’s a question some folks are asking these days
A lot of people are talking about ‘Sharon‘ this month. For those new to Heisenberg,
“As Fed speak over the past few weeks makes clear, the ‘Trump rally’ has aggressively pushed the ‘Yellen call’ back into the money, as we feared.”
There’s an old saying in Tennessee – it’s probably in Tennessee, I know it’s in
Well I think it’s safe to say that geopolitical risk – which the naive among
“Bullish bets on oil, copper and cotton futures all hit record levels in January, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that goes back to 2006. That was the first time in nearly a decade that this cross section of materials and resources established new highs simultaneously.”
“Way” back on Tuesday in “No, Janet Yellen Does Not Need To Wait On Donald
I’m feeling more punchy than usual this morning, so I’ll kick Saturday off by noting
One of the things you might have noticed is that the Fed is looking at a
“I keep getting asked ‘When will this end?’, which is a very different question than ‘How long can this continue?’ On the one hand it implies that investors are seeing it but can’t quite believe it.”
So basically, the message is that unless the S&P were to suddenly collapse, the Fed
We need to know the extent to which the Schatz spread to 2Y French govies is an indication of investors trying to price redenomination risk around a prospective Marine Le Pen win. That is, we need to understand how closely we should be watching the German curve as a barometer of political risk.
“As analyst notes flow in to investors’ inboxes during the next 24 hours, asset prices may start reflecting a far more negative outcome. Beware downside moves in the dollar, in U.S. yields, and even in equities. At some point, traders may realize the new emperor has no clothes.”
Regular readers may recall Citi’s News Implied Sentiment Indicator (NISI) which “aims to capture investor
As you might have noticed, the reflation narrative got a boost after hours when comments from
“The yen market is offside and being short-squeezed. This looks set to sustain even amid resilience in equities, but just imagine how messy the move could get if U.S. shares crash to converge with how other assets are trading”…
As you probably know, Donald Trump is going to address Congress on Tuesday and as
If you really know markets, then you know that last week’s biggest story was plunging
In other words, the market is trying to learn from its mistakes. We were caught off guard by the Brexit vote and Trump’s victory, so now, we’re seeing relatively large moves as traders’ collective desire to avoid the pitfalls of underestimating the probability of a tail event is manifest in the amplification of tiny blips in poll numbers.
How can a market “take into consideration all potential future events”? Obviously it can’t. That’s absurd. That said, stocks should be expected to discount what we might call “known unknowns.” That is, events that we know are likely to cause turbulence but that also admit of some indeterminacy regarding outcomes. Things that would fall into that category include the French elections and US tax reform.
It’s “remarkable”…
He doesn’t have a long, white beard. He doesn’t wear a robe or a pointy
One of the themes I harp on quite a lot in these pages is the
As I noted earlier on Friday, this week provided nothing in the way of clarity
If you were looking for clarity with regard to President Donald Trump’s policies or for any kind
Well, if this isn’t the very definition of serendipitous, then I don’t know what is.
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