One Bank Asks The Important Question: “Is Soft The New Hard?”
There are a whole lot of things you can say about last week, but one
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“Winter’s Over, But Volatility Is Still In Hibernation”: One Bank Answers Your VIX Questions
“Lowest vol Q1 since 1965. There are many stats we can point to about how low volatility has been year-to-date, and most tell the same story: we’re again approaching some of the pre-financial crisis lows in implied and realized vol.”
“Hold My Beer While I Meet Xi.” And Everything Else You Need To Know On Thursday
It’s Thursday, which means today’s Donald Trump gets to look the Donald Trump who refused to
Trader: “You Always Want To Hit A Home Run – But You Strike Out A Lot.”
“The question you need to be constantly asking yourself is whether any given move or news is fundamentally important or at the margin? Does it break new ground or is just a data point? Will there be some policy response or not?”
One Strategist Compared Hedge Funds To Passive Index Funds: “The Results Were Breathtaking”
“Hedge funds’ returns have started to track the SPX more closely. As that happens, their ability to outperform has collapsed. This makes intuitive sense; there’s no way you can beat an index when you’re paying 2 and 20 on an investment vehicle that largely replicates the return of the index!”
Currency Craziness, Car Carnage, Le Pen Jitters: Welcome To Tuesday, Dammit
Hitting the ground running on Tuesday it was an interesting overnight session. For one thing,
Don’t Look Now But There’s “Trouble With The Curve”
“One of the notable aspects of today’s Treasury-market price action — 10-year yields dipped as low as 2.33% — has been the flattening of the 2s/10s curve, which is now threatening its post-election lows.”
Boom! It’s Monday. Here’s What Happened While You Were Asleep
Well, it’s Monday. Welcome to Q2. Things were relatively subdued in the overnight session, as
“Why Is The VIX So Low?” A Macro Strategist’s 4-Word Answer
“Until we see a deterioration in credit quality across the broad economy, we can probably put one burning question to bed. Why is the VIX so low? Because it should be.”
Just Another Junk Bond Chart To Ignore On A Slow Wednesday…
…just something else you can probably ignore if you’re in junk bonds.
‘Bigly’ Earnings Growth “Isn’t A Fantasy” Because Wall Street Says It Will Eventually Be Real
“For the first time since 2011, hopes for double-digit growth in U.S. earnings aren’t a fantasy [because] Wall Street analysts have been standing firm on forecasts.”
“They Can’t Afford Another Humiliating Defeat” – Fund Managers, Analysts Weigh In On The Road Ahead
Good news is that Trump and Congress are likely to “pivot hard†on economic growth agenda with tax reform right at the center. “They can’t afford another humiliating defeatâ€
One Bank Warns: The “Dark Side” Has Reappeared Just As “The Force” Looks Weak
“The dark side – protectionism – reappeared at the G20, just when the force – hope of a bold US fiscal plan – is looking weaker. This has hurt risk sentiment a bit, helping bonds find their feet. We see that as temporary profit taking on crowded trades, rather than a fullblown reversal.”
Eventually It Will Happen. It Always Does. Unless…
Then again, Trump does have an “out”…
Why Is Volatility So Low? Out With The “Old,” In With The “New”
“The Fed has moved to the other side of the volatility equation. It is now more likely that the Fed will contribute to higher volatility if the market deems financial conditions to have become too tight.”
Introducing The “Fiscal Option” Or, How To Goal Seek S&P 2,525
In terms of timing, Tuesday probably wasn’t the best day to be out setting optimistic S&P targets,
Kolanovic: Tuesday Was “No Surprise,” Should “Not Be Fitted To Political Narrative”
“While we don’t want to minimize the impact of political developments, today’s move was primarily technical and should not be fitted into a political narrative (which in fact was neutral between developments in France and US).”
“This Is No Different” From 1987: Is Marko Kolanovic Right?
“When an institution allocates to a momentum strategy in the hope of cushioning itself from stock market downdraughts it is really commissioning someone to sell stocks on its behalf into a falling market.”
Euro Jumps To 6-Week High After Lunatic Loses Key Debate
We start Tuesday in Europe in the aftermath of the closely watched presidential debate at
“Where The Wild Flows Are”: Equity Funds See Largest Inflow In 13 Weeks Before Fed
There’s been no shortage of discussion this year about flows into US equities. Over the past
As Treasury Yields Fall, Ask Yourself: How Long Are They Going To Let This Go On?
This seems like a good time to remind you that not everyone is buying the
Is “Tantrum” Risk Rising Behind The Scenes?
So this is something that’s worth watching… We’ve said time and again that investors would
JP Merlin Returns: Kolanovic Says Buy The Dip
Remember back on Tuesday night when Goldman decided 19 hours before the Fed hike was
A One-Way Bet: “People Are Waist Deep For The First Time”
“People went toe in the water, knee in the water and now many are probably above the waist for the first time.”
It’s The Big One! What To Make Of Friday’s All-Important Number
Listen, if you’ve lost the plot line don’t worry because everyone else has too. Just
More Trouble
I don’t know if maybe you noticed, but this is playing out exactly like I
“What You Got Was The Exact Opposite”: Macro Hedge Funds Join The “Dumb” Money
I swear to God I’m starting to think that before this is all over, index
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