On Eve Of Trump’s Return, China’s Trade ‘Winnings’ Reach $1 Trillion
China’s a reverse Art Vandelay: “Just exports, no imports?” On Monday, Beijing released trade figures
The Chilly Truth Behind China’s 5% Growth
China’s set to release a raft of key data this week, including the full-year GDP
Fed Prays For Inflation Reprieve
The Fed could really — really — use a break on the inflation front. Policymakers
The Most Pressing Question(s) On Earth
I’d say there’s no more pressing question than whether the largest US tech companies will
High Bar, Two-Sided Risks: What To Expect From Earnings Season
Reporting season starts next week, and analysts collectively have great expectations for corporate America. Consensus
Cash Cult Keeps Gathering Adherents
If you’re curious, money market funds kicked off the new year with a big inflow.
Worst Of All Possible Worlds?
I don’t know how many market participants had “bear flattener” on their jobs day bingo
In Ominous Development, US Inflation Expectations Soar To Highest Since 2008
Uh oh. A closely-watched measure of medium- and longer-term inflation expectations printed 3.3% in the
Bulls, Bears, Booms And Bonds
As a reminder no one needs, last year marked just the fifth time in a
US Jobs, Comin’ In Hot!
Look out! US payrolls are comin’ in hot. The US economy added 256,000 jobs last
UK Teeters On Brink Of Second Crisis In Two Years
Liz Truss was in the news Thursday. Apparently, it’s illegal to suggest she crashed the
In China, The Great Deep Freeze Continues
China: It’s not going well. Still. It’s still not going well for the world’s second-largest
Rekindled Inflation And Fear Of The Great Unknown
At the risk of stating the obvious (and for the umpteenth time), one of the
Risk Of US Stock Drawdown Rises To One In Three
The risk of a meaningful stock pullback’s elevated. You can tell because… well, have you
FOMC Minutes Betray Early Concern Over Tariffs, Deportations
During last month’s press conference, Jerome Powell went out of his way to suggest upward
Time To Catch The Falling Bond Knife?
It might be time to buy the bonds. I don’t know. Not investment advice. Do
National Emergy
Regrettably, we’re all (every one of us) condemned to spend the next four years chasing
US Jobless Claims Just Collapsed
US jobless claims were — umm — very, very low in the week to January
Private Hiring Cools In America
Private employers added 122,000 jobs in December, ADP said Wednesday, describing a “modest” pace of
How Leveraged ETFs Feed The Beast
I’ve spoken at some length recently about the extent to which modern market structure and
Are The Bonds Broken?
“Die gas pumper!” References to The Jerk are a staple in these pages, even as
Need A Job? There Are 8 Million Of Them Open In America
If you live in America and want a job, there are plenty available. Caveats apply.
Price Pressures Pick Up Sharply In Vast US Services Sector
The implacable US services sector outperformed in December. More importantly, price pressures accelerated sharply. That’s
Europe Not Out Of The Inflation Woods Just Yet
If you’re interested — and I know most of you are(n’t) — inflation in Europe
US Dominance Of Global Equity Market Reaches Existential Extremes
If your business is stocks, the US is all that matters. As 2025 dawned, the
Stock Bull Out Of Patience With Bond Bear, Wilson Warns
And the most important variable for stock performance in January is — drumroll — rates.
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