“Listen! Do You Smell Something?” Canaries In The Coal Mine
“So on a morning of relative calm with S&P 500 futures trading at all-time highs, I thought I’d take the opportunity to focus on a few potential canaries in the coal mine of risk-on to watch.”
“Run-For-Your-Life Affair” Continues In France, Fed’s Mester Hints At Hikes, US Vacations
“This weekend was an all-out, run-for-your-life affair.” That’s from Yves-Marie Cann, head of political studies at
Two Charts & One Word
Spread the “love.”
Twitter Goes Crazy, Sweden Demands Answers After Trump Makes Up Terror Attack
“If only Frederick Douglass had been in Sweden when that terrible terrorist attack didn’t happen.”
Here’s What’s Coming Up For Markets
“Don’t be fooled by the the holiday-shortened trading week in the US. Next week promises to give investors plenty to watch, including the Greek bailout, minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting, Bank of England governor Mark Carney’s testimony, retail earnings and Warren Buffett’s annual letter.”
Behold: A Sad, Sad Spectacle
That, right there, is why this is all so f*cking sad.
“JP Merlin” Returns: Quant Wizard Kolanovic Weighs In On Volatility, Geopolitics, And The Fed
He doesn’t have a long, white beard. He doesn’t wear a robe or a pointy
What’s The Best Hedge Against Protectionism? Fund Managers Weigh In
There’s a lot of chatter these days about the extent to which hedging doesn’t make
“Euro Exit Would Ruin France,” More Russian Hacking, And Other Fun Overnight News
“Exiting the euro, presidential candidate Marine Le Pen’s project, would ruin France, Bruno Le Maire, adviser of French Republican candidate Francois Fillon, says on Europe 1 radio.”
Here’s What’s Driving Stocks To Record Highs
“Over the last 3 weeks, US equities have rallied as fund positioning rose, the buyback bid resumed as companies exited blackout periods and US equity inflows returned over the last week. Overall US equity fund positioning getting elevated. Elevated overall positioning reflects that of long-short hedge funds and asset allocation funds.”
Some “Crude” Rambling
Warning: there’s no structure here. Just some stream of consciousness oil market rambling along with some pretty good excerpts from Bloomberg, Reuters, and SocGen. Oh, and there’s a random chart at the end.
Thinking Globally In A World Gone Mad
One of the themes I harp on quite a lot in these pages is the
Saturday Humor (Crazy Like A “Fox”)
Nope, no connection here….
Did The Market Misread The Most Important Event Of The Week?
So we got a hawkish Yellen on Capitol Hill. Or did we?
A $1.3 Trillion Quandary
If you’re looking for pockets of risk (and you should always be looking for pockets
Goldman: “Cognitive Dissonance” Reigns In US Stock Market
“Cognitive dissonance exists in the US stock market. S&P 500 is up 10% since the election despite negative EPS revisions from sell-side analysts (see Exhibit 1). Investors, S&P 500 management teams, and sell-side analysts do not agree on the most likely path forward.”
Chart Check (“Up, Up And Away”)
“Le Pen is mightier than le sword”…
“Has The Whole World Gone Crazy?!”
“Has the whole world gone crazy?! Am I the only one around here who gives a sh*t about the rules?!”
When (Black) Swans Cry
I also question whether bragging about having “f*ck you money” (which Taleb does in his books) is the type of thing befitting of a man who aspires to a kind of intellectual high ground that he seems to think the rest of us can’t possibly attain no matter how many times we read his work.
The Week That Was: “The Hardest Thing To Do Is Justify Hedging”
Well, it’s been one hell of a week. We started on a sugar high thanks
Chart Of The Day (“C’est La Vie”)
It may not look very dramatic, but looks can be deceiving. It’s all about France
Here Comes The Next “Tantrum”
I’m always warning about VaR shocks. More specifically, I like to remind investors that in
“Buridan’s Ass, Meet Scylla And Charybdis”
As I noted earlier on Friday, this week provided nothing in the way of clarity
Key Calls (Friday): “Inevitable Selloff” Edition
S&P 500’s 166-day streak without 5% pullback is longest since 2007; “Selloff is inevitable, perhaps starting very soonâ€
A French Kiss Leaves Global Risk Queasy On Friday
If you were looking for clarity with regard to President Donald Trump’s policies or for any kind
“What Are You Paying For?!” One Bank Asks Whether French CDS Is Worthless
What protection are you paying for? Marine Le Pen’s proposal to take France out of the euro is once again raising questions about whether CDS will “do what it says on the tinâ€. As on previous occasions, we fear the answer is “not necessarilyâ€
Must Read: Wall Street Explains Why We All Need Wall Street
Well, if this isn’t the very definition of serendipitous, then I don’t know what is.
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