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Featured

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • ‘The Plain Fact’

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Old, Good News

July 30, 2026July 31, 2026

Underlying price growth on the Fed’s preferred inflation metric decelerated sharply in June from the

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1 Comment on Old, Good News

Underlying Demand Very Strong, US GDP Report Suggests

July 30, 2026July 31, 2026

The US economy expanded at a slower-than-expected pace in the second quarter, as net trade

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1 Comment on Underlying Demand Very Strong, US GDP Report Suggests

Warsh Asked Markets To Speak. He Didn’t Like What He Heard

July 29, 2026July 30, 2026

“Collegial and constructive.” That’s how Kevin Warsh described this week’s FOMC meeting while regaling reporters

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14 Comments on Warsh Asked Markets To Speak. He Didn’t Like What He Heard

Microsoft Beats With Azure, Meta Underwhelms With Sales Guide

July 29, 2026July 30, 2026

Microsoft beat estimates for overall revenue and reported the fastest cloud growth in four years

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2 Comments on Microsoft Beats With Azure, Meta Underwhelms With Sales Guide

Warsh Holds Rates In Riven FOMC Nail-Biter

July 29, 2026July 30, 2026

The Fed kept rates on hold Wednesday, as expected. “As expected” needs a giant asterisk.

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9 Comments on Warsh Holds Rates In Riven FOMC Nail-Biter

Mideast Melee Rekindled

July 29, 2026July 30, 2026

“Many important subjects were discussed” when Donald Trump met at The White House early this

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10 Comments on Mideast Melee Rekindled

Chip Boom Risks Becoming Financial Crisis For South Korea

July 29, 2026July 29, 2026

Now it’s getting really ugly. Shares of SK Hynix, which had already halved from their

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18 Comments on Chip Boom Risks Becoming Financial Crisis For South Korea

Warsh, Trump And The Case For 50

July 28, 2026July 29, 2026

Ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting, allow me to reiterate my deeply-held view that a

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9 Comments on Warsh, Trump And The Case For 50

In US Housing, The Worst Of All Possible Worlds?

July 28, 2026July 30, 2026

Price growth’s re-accelerating in the US housing market, according to the marquee measures of national

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1 Comment on In US Housing, The Worst Of All Possible Worlds?

As Long As The Stocks Go Up…

July 28, 2026July 29, 2026

They don’t love it. “They” are US households, which is to say American voters. “It”

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Leave a Comment on As Long As The Stocks Go Up…

The Casino’s On Fire

July 28, 2026July 29, 2026

Another day, another absolutely harrowing session in the casino that is South Korea’s domestic equity

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2 Comments on The Casino’s On Fire

Skepticism Swirls Around Semis As Hyper-Scalers Report

July 27, 2026July 28, 2026

Chip stocks looked shaky at the beginning of what could be a pivotal week for

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1 Comment on Skepticism Swirls Around Semis As Hyper-Scalers Report

Red Scare Day

July 27, 2026July 28, 2026

The chips were down again in the US on Monday, when the SOX slipped back

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5 Comments on Red Scare Day

In China, Fond Memory

July 27, 2026July 28, 2026

They’re excited in China, where the nation’s notoriously high-strung retail set bid for more than

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Leave a Comment on In China, Fond Memory

A Pivotal, Perilous Week

July 26, 2026July 28, 2026

It’s a big week in macro-market land, where investors will parse policy decisions from three

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4 Comments on A Pivotal, Perilous Week

Hyper-Scaler Earnings Highlight Market’s Catch-22

July 26, 2026July 27, 2026

A tough post-earnings trade for Alphabet last week despite a very strong Google Cloud readout

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8 Comments on Hyper-Scaler Earnings Highlight Market’s Catch-22

What To Expect From The July FOMC

July 25, 2026July 27, 2026

If the question’s what to expect from Kevin Warsh at the July FOMC meeting, I’m

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6 Comments on What To Expect From The July FOMC

Weekly: ABB

July 24, 2026July 27, 2026

“Anything but bonds.” That’s been the zeitgeist (or the mantra) for the better part of

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4 Comments on Weekly: ABB

Bombed-Out Housing Needs More Than Price Cuts

July 24, 2026July 26, 2026

Last week, in an update detailing yet another in a never-ending stretch of abysmal reads

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5 Comments on Bombed-Out Housing Needs More Than Price Cuts

Trump, Human Rights Champion, Takes Aim At Forced Labor

July 24, 2026July 26, 2026

Donald Trump, noted human rights crusader, is doing his part to combat forced labor around

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5 Comments on Trump, Human Rights Champion, Takes Aim At Forced Labor

So, Kevin: What’s It Gonna Be?

July 23, 2026July 25, 2026

“I am considering a massive attack. Bigger than ever before,” Donald Trump said Thursday, in

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4 Comments on So, Kevin: What’s It Gonna Be?

‘Hell Freezes Over’ As Uber-Bear Edwards Says ‘Everything’s Fine’

July 23, 2026July 25, 2026

For all the concern about the hawkish read-across for monetary policy of rising energy costs,

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Leave a Comment on ‘Hell Freezes Over’ As Uber-Bear Edwards Says ‘Everything’s Fine’

Call In The Goat Herders!

July 23, 2026July 24, 2026

Cue the Tusken Raiders memes. The Houthis were front-page news Thursday after the group fired

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8 Comments on Call In The Goat Herders!

ECB Wishes All The Shooting Would Stop

July 23, 2026July 24, 2026

The Houthis weren’t discussed at any length at this week’s ECB meeting, in case you

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Leave a Comment on ECB Wishes All The Shooting Would Stop

Tesla Bewilders With Convoluted Update

July 22, 2026July 23, 2026

I don’t find Tesla’s quarterly reports to be especially useful, which means I don’t especially

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2 Comments on Tesla Bewilders With Convoluted Update

‘Real Measurable Value’

July 22, 2026July 23, 2026

Alphabet’s Cloud business blew past estimates in Q2 results released after the bell on Wall

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14 Comments on ‘Real Measurable Value’

Dude, Where’s My Sky-Dweller?

July 22, 2026July 23, 2026

The VIX is sub-20, one-month trailing realized vol’s sub-11 and measures of relative demand for

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5 Comments on Dude, Where’s My Sky-Dweller?

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • derek on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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