María del Carmen Abascal, the disabled 87-year-old who became the face of Spain’s housing affordability crisis after being evicted and carted away on a stretcher last month, isn’t doing well. Specifically, she’s dead.
Abascal, known in the protest movement as “Maricarmen,” passed away on Wednesday. The cause of death wasn’t immediately disclosed, but it seems as likely as not she was just tired. Following her eviction, she was hospitalized for exhaustion. Her condition subsequently deteriorated.
As she lay dying, the property management company which booted her from the apartment where she resided for some seven decades agreed to reverse, entirely, the rent increase that forced her from the flat, but… well, as her family put it, the “solution came too late.”
I bring this up for the second time this week because what Maricarmen’s attorneys aptly described as “an absolutely avoidable situation” ultimately prompted Spanish premier Pedro Sánchez to call a snap vote. The political tumult in Spain is insult to injury for Europe and, more to the point, for besieged European bonds at a time when France is in thrall to an escalating crisis.
Although flat on the day as of this writing, France’s 10-year yields came within a few basis points of 5% on Thursday. They were — checks notes — negative 0.45% this time seven years ago.
Have a look at that chart. Suffice to say the world’s a different place than it was in 2019.
“Negative interest rate[s] and asset purchases were a staple of developed-market central bank policy for a decade, mak[ing] it easy for sovereigns to sell their debt at low yields,” JonesTrading’s Mike O’Rourke remarked, with barely-veiled disdain. “Unsurprisingly, such policies led to profligate spending [and] nations are finding that investors have become more discerning buyers of their debt.”
The situation in France is acute. Protests against poor conditions at public schools continued on Thursday, when at least 150 high schools were closed around the country. That was at least fewer than Tuesday, when as many as 900 schools were shut due to the demonstrations.
Long story short, France’s fiscal situation is apparently so dire that the government can’t afford to keep classrooms adequately staffed, nor school facilities respectably maintained. The French far-left’s sympathetic to the students’ cause, but fanning the figurative flames carries significant risks in the event more groups join the protests and things start to burn, literally.
It scarcely matters. Jean-Luc Mélenchon can’t win. But Marine Le Pen sure can and probably will. Indeed, I think it’s a virtually certainty that, on her fourth try, Le Pen ascends the Élysée, an outcome the country’s political center has moved mountains to avert over the years.
All populists — those on the right and left — are inclined to magical thinking when it comes to public finances. Le Pen’s no different. Earlier this week she said France is spiraling towards “a de facto default.” She blamed the political establishment and said her plan, which includes tax cuts, pension reform, limits on France’s payouts to Brussels (which, if not approved at the EU level, would presumably mean cuts to subsidies for key French constituencies) and an effort to squeeze multinational corporate tax cheats, will fix the situation.
Spoiler alert: It won’t. Or at least not anytime soon, and certainly not within the — chuckles — 18-month timeframe Le Pen laid out for reassuring markets that France is “a reliable partner.” She says she can cut the deficit by nearly 2.5ppt in just four years and slash France’s debt-to-GDP ratio by 7ppt to a still high 112% over the same period, while simultaneously cutting taxes by €30 billion. I think we all know how that’s likely to turn out. The bond market certainly does.
Coming back to the broader point, the developed world’s experiencing a comeuppance for the ages. “Concerns are not limited to one single nation. Whether it is France, the US, Japan or the UK, there has been a persistent theme of worry that government deficit spending will eventually lead to a reckoning for sovereign debt markets,” BMO’s US rates team said this week. “The run-up in real rates throughout this year is certainly consistent with these risks, with the strain in the French market only the latest episode that reinforces fiscal worries.”
The figure above illustrates the point perhaps better than any other: It shows you Bloomberg’s negative-yielding debt series, which used to be in the news seemingly every other day.
Once upon a time, which is to say “way back” six years ago, negative-yielding sovereign debt was just par (no bond market pun intended) for the course in the developed world. Indeed, negative-yielding corporate debt was a thing in 2019, particularly in Europe. Now, there’s virtually no such debt, if there’s any at all.
“It is remarkable to think that at the end of 2020 there was nearly $20 trillion of negative-yielding debt globally,” JonesTrading’s O’Rourke went on, in the same note mentioned above. “Now the world’s safest instruments act as if they have no bid most days.”




“Just take them and throw them in the fire”: On June 24, in front of a handful of journalists and influencers, La France Insoumise (LFI) leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon explained, in his unique way, his proposal to erase part of France’s debt.
Marine Le Pen isn’t going to want to stay in the EU, either. Meanwhile, England is talking about rejoining! Absolutely crazy.
Guess I should brush up on debt defaults and all the implications. Also, in some drawer, somewhere, I have some old French francs. I might be able to use them! I remember actually being in France and going to a bank to exchange FF’s into Euros (I just looked up the exchange rate in 2002- it was 6.55957). Wonder what I will get when I exchange Euros into French Francs in (about) 2027/28?
Would love to hear your view on whether Le Pen might do a Meloni and become mainstream or whether she is going the crackpot way once she is in power.
On another note; it’s funny how bond markets behave and that we are all worried (or something of the sort) when countries have 5-6% deficits and 100%+ Debt to GDP ratios. Of course it’s irresponsible, especially when you look at France. But when you look at the debt per capita however, whats another EUR 55k per capita? The average mortgage is multitudes of that and actually needs to get repaid at some point.
“Would love to hear your view on whether Le Pen might do a Meloni…”
My sense is that she’s already done (more than) enough in terms of softening her image via distancing herself from her father (although that’s a complicated saga), distancing herself from AfD in Germany, etc, etc.
Indeed, given AfD’s recent success and RN’s polling in France, you could argue Le Pen has room to swing back towards the far-right extremes if she wanted to.
Also, Le Pen will be the dominant politician in Europe and will feature prominently on the world stage if/when she becomes president. She’s not going to be a second-fiddler like Meloni. (In fairness to Meloni, Italy’s not a P5 power, but you get what I mean.)
I despise the woman, so it pains me to say this, but this is Le Pen’s moment. I don’t think she has to soften anything or kowtow to anybody, including Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping. The irony here is that if she wanted to, she could be a force for some kind of good in the world. Assuming she wins next year, she’ll be the fifth, maybe sixth, most powerful person on Earth, and the second most powerful person governing a democracy.
Unlike Trump, Le Pen’s not actually a “crackpot.” Don’t get me wrong, I certainly understand why you’d call her that. But she’s not actually crazy, and she’s certainly no idiot. I also don’t think she’s inherently “bad.” She’s inherently a lot of other things, though, not many of which are good. And that’s the problem. I hope she rises to the occasion. We all should.
Populism creating a debt problem where there really wasn’t one, since governments create money and central banks can sell assets into markets to absorb it. It’s just another excuse to centralize power and cut services. The best way to make people believe government can’t do anything right, is to sabotage it at every turn.