‘Currently Clean On OPSEC’
On Monday, the Trump administration stumbled into a truly unfortunate PR debacle described by some
Bear Market In Melt-Up Bets Points To Rally Pain Trade
What’s the “pain trade” in US assets going forward? If you read “The ‘Less-Bad’ Thesis
The ‘Less-Bad’ Thesis For Stocks Ahead Of ‘Liberation Day’
Could “Liberation Day” be a buy-the-news event for equities? If you know markets, you’re aware
Petitio Principii: GOP Goes ‘Nihilistic’ To Extend Trump Tax Cuts
When it comes to the myriad, glaring absurdities hiding in plain sight amongst the grotesque
US Services Activity Recovered This Month. The Good News Stops There
There was incrementally positive news on the US macro front Monday, when preliminary PMI readouts
‘Trump Put’ May Be Struck As Low As SPX 5200
Investors bought the dip in US equities to the tune of $34 billion, but maybe
‘Transitory’ Is The New Transitory
There’s a fair amount on offer this week in the US macrosphere, including what’ll probably
Liberation!
In the days ahead, traders and investors will gear up for “Liberation Day.” Never heard
Autocracy Now
[Editor’s note: The domestic political situation in America is spiraling. This is, I think, an
Killing The Golden Goose
From a near-term, domestic economic perspective, the riskiest aspect of Donald Trump’s agenda is the
Stock ETFs Deluged By $57 Billion Dip-Buying Tsunami
Did you buy the dip? Some folks did. I don’t love “analyzing” flows data anywhere
Global Stocks Haven’t Been This Out Of Sync Since The 1990s
Not since the 1990s have regional equities diverged to the extent they have today. That
History Suggests S&P On Bear Market Trajectory
2025’s early-year stock correction on Wall Street will go down as one of the quickest
JPMorgan Says US Stock Valuations ‘Structurally Higher’
US stocks are expensive. Maybe you heard. Maybe you noticed. Maybe you bought them anyway.
US Home Sales Rebound. Price Gains Offset Stock Losses For America’s Rich
Surprise, surprise: Existing US home sales defied expectations for another decline to post a solid
A Wary Bank Of England Holds Rates Amid ‘Intensified’ Uncertainty
The Bank of England kept rates on hold Thursday as expected. The vote split was
US Jobless Claims Stay Low During NFP Survey Week
US jobless claims were a nonevent Thursday. So, why am I wasting my time and,
‘Adapting As We Go’
There were two main takeaways from Jerome Powell’s press conference on Wednesday, when the Fed
Fed On Hold, Sticks With Two 2025 Cuts In Dot Plot, Tapers QT
The Fed left rates on hold Wednesday, as expected. There was exactly no chance of
Meanwhile, In Turkey…
I used to cover Turkish politics, monetary policy and the lira as a matter of
Plunging Global Growth Outlook ‘Bad News For Stocks’
If you’re curious to know what a sharply deteriorating global growth outlook among fund managers
Cash, Tariffs And DOGE
Did you buy the (re)dip? Wall Street struggled on Tuesday to extend a two-session rally
Here Comes The Constitutional Crisis
There are a lot of “Will he or won’t he?” questions swirling around Donald Trump,
Global Macro Pessimism Soars Second-Most Since 1994
Congratulations are in order: The Trump administration just catalyzed the largest decline in a broad
New Construction Rebounds, But US Housing’s Still Screwed
Good news. Provisionally. New construction activity picked up in the US last month despite woefully
Fund Managers Run Screaming From US Stocks As Trump’s ‘Golden Age’ Dawns
Well, it’s official: US equity exceptionalism’s over. Time of death: March 2025 or, less than
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