Jobs, Minutes, Xi & The Juiceman: Your Full Week Ahead Preview
Welcome to the first quarter of the rest of your life. Q2 marks markets’ first
Welcome to the first quarter of the rest of your life. Q2 marks markets’ first
Q: Is the Fed more hawkish than the market assumes? A: Yes.
“While the Bloomberg Dollar index edged up to the highest level in more than a week on Friday as supporting month-end flows outweighed profit-taking interest after yesterday’s rally, this is still on track to be the worst quarter in a year for the index. By contrast, gold is heading for its best quarter in a year.”
Well, I suppose the overarching narrative here for retail investors is pretty goddamn simple: buy
Well, it’s Friday and this week has been just as interesting as last week. Today
We start Tuesday in Europe in the aftermath of the closely watched presidential debate at
This seems like a good time to remind you that not everyone is buying the
“While this has allowed the Fed to have its cake and eat it too at the March meeting, in our view there could be a bigger sign from the markets to the Fed: financial conditions could be at the cusp of signaling that policy is behind the curve.”
Remember a few Fridays ago when everyone was panicking about whether or not the reflation
“If two-year Treasury yields close above 1.3% but 10-year yields linger below 2.5%, then a hike is expected but it’s being perceived as a potential policy mistake. If we close above both levels, it’s the reflation trade, baby.”
It kind of feels like everyone is ready to get this week on the books.
So just a few minutes ago, I said that “basically, the message is that unless
So basically, the message is that unless the S&P were to suddenly collapse, the Fed
We need to know the extent to which the Schatz spread to 2Y French govies is an indication of investors trying to price redenomination risk around a prospective Marine Le Pen win. That is, we need to understand how closely we should be watching the German curve as a barometer of political risk.
“That Wells Fargo note is looking pretty prescient right now” – said no one, anywhere ever. Until now.
It would be a stretch to say he “did a good job.” It felt like we were watching a man who had been told, in no uncertain terms, that this was most assuredly not the time to play presidential Mad Libs.
As you might have noticed, the reflation narrative got a boost after hours when comments from
“Yesterday, NY Fed President Dudley said it was very unusual to see stocks rising when there’s so much uncertainty. True, but they’re getting a lot of help on the regulatory and tax side. But there’s no evidence in other markets that everyone has a clear vision of the path ahead.”
Apparently, reports of the reflation meme’s demise were greatly exaggerated. It wasn’t too long ago
Well, it was always all about the dots and we did get a little drama
Ok so Goldman has a preview (or three) out re: next week’s Fed meeting which
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