The Weirdest FOMC Meeting Ever, Part I
The September 2025 FOMC gathering will be a surreal experience. For markets, but also for
Weekly: The Anarchy Hedge
I hate to be “that guy.” The guy quoting gold prices and complaining about budgets
It’s Quiet. Too Quiet.
“It’s quiet,” as the clichéd allusion to imminent danger begins. “Too quiet.” I talked about
Bad News Is Good News (Double Dovish Whammy)
The good news for stocks it that the data’s bad. How many times have we
Vibecession, Now With Job Losses!
Consumer moods in the US deteriorated early this month, according to the marquee gauge of
Stock Bubble Metric Hits New Record In Nod To Inequality Spiral
US equities came into Friday looking for a second consecutive weekly gain, a fifth in
Bolsonaro’s Guilty
Tariffs on Brazil are 10,000% starting tomorrow. I’m just kidding. Probably. Maybe. Hopefully. Donald Trump’s
A Few Words On Charlie Kirk’s Assassination
The easiest way to understand Charlie Kirk’s death is to state the facts: Kirk was
Jobless Claims Alarmism Kicks Into High Gear
Jobless claims in the US are still rising! Jobless claims in the US just spiked
‘Benign’ Inflation Is In The Eye Of The Beholder
Phew. We squeaked by. I guess. Core inflation across the US economy ran 0.346% in
There’s An ‘Invisible Hand’ Keeping Stocks At Records
There’s an “invisible hand” at work and I don’t mean Adam Smith’s thoroughly exhausted metaphor
Reckless Mischief
Drones. Vladimir Putin’s got ’em to burn thanks in part to Iranian generosity. UAVs are
Larry Hits The Jackpot
Larry Ellison made something like $120 billion by lunchtime on Wednesday. How’d you do? I
The Bigger Story Behind Cook V. Trump
It’s not a stretch — or if it is, not an especially large one —
Wholesale Inflation In The US Cools Sharply. And Conveniently
Good news: Wednesday’s update on wholesale prices across the world’s largest economy looked benign. If
Anywhere, Anytime
Two things right off the bat. First, Israel’s a rogue state now. Second, brazen assassinations
Give Or Take 911,000
Drama, folks. High drama. And I don’t mean Israel venturing further down the road to
Investors Are Learning To Live With A Post-Democracy America
There for a time, the story of 2025 was US underperformance. On some vectors anyway,
Acrophobia
It’s a good thing valuations and market concentration aren’t reliable predictors of near-term equity market
Here We Go Again. Again.
I enjoy writing about French politics about as much as you like reading about French
S&P 7,000 Here We Come?
The outlook for large-cap, US corporate equities — “the stocks,” if you like — remains
The Party Line. Toe It Or Else…
Over the weekend, regime official Scott Bessent showed up on NBC’s Meet The Press which
Paging Nick Timiraos?
The Fed’s in their self-imposed communications blackout this week ahead of a September policy meeting
CPI, Jobs Revisions Are Make Or Break For Super-Sized Fed Cut
It’s CPI week in the US, but the relevance of the BLS inflation update for
Ishiba Exits As Japanese Voter Angst Grows
Shigeru Ishiba’s done. He was actually done months ago, in July, when a lackluster result
ADP’s Revenge
I suppose we all owe ADP an apology. For most of the post-pandemic era, macro
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