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Featured

The Capex Catch-22

November 3, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Someone’s Got Work For You

    November 3, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Tech Got No Love This Earnings Season

    November 3, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Have The Hyper-Scalers Lost Their Minds?

    November 2, 2026November 2, 2026

Markets

Apple Sets A Bunch Of Records. Misses In China

November 2, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Sell-Side Sarcasm: New And Improved!

    November 2, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Weekly: The Leveraged Buildout (Speculative Gravity Control)

    October 31, 2026November 2, 2026
  • The Problem, In A Nutshell…

    October 30, 2026November 2, 2026
  • What’s What And WTF?

    October 30, 2026November 1, 2026

economy

Debbie Downers Amid The Renaissance

November 2, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Polls, Projectiles And Payrolls

    November 1, 2026November 2, 2026
  • ‘Remains Elevated’

    October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Boom!

    October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Dissembling Strategery

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

Geopolitics

Let’s Talk Blue Waves

November 1, 2026November 2, 2026

Lagarde Versus Le Pen?

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026

The Tragic Irony Of The Israeli State

October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

Duly Noted

An ARM And A Leg

October 28, 2026October 30, 2026

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

Long Lines And ‘That Fear Of Not Knowing’: Argentina Stares Into Abyss As Capital Controls Implemented

September 2, 2019September 2, 2019

“I prefer to be cautious and not regret it later”.

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4 Comments on Long Lines And ‘That Fear Of Not Knowing’: Argentina Stares Into Abyss As Capital Controls Implemented

Boris Johnson All Set To Force Snap Election As Brexit Train Careens Further Off The Rails

September 2, 2019September 2, 2019

“I want everybody to know there are no circumstances in which I will ask Brussels to delay”.

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1 Comment on Boris Johnson All Set To Force Snap Election As Brexit Train Careens Further Off The Rails

The Real Risk For Markets: The Bond Bubble Bursts

September 2, 2019September 3, 2019

“[A] disorderly rise of interest rates could cause Wall St deleveraging… and a Main St recession”.

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6 Comments on The Real Risk For Markets: The Bond Bubble Bursts

Chinese Stocks Are Shrugging Off Currency Weakness. Here’s Why

September 2, 2019

“Policymakers are in control”.

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UK Manufacturing Shrinks Fastest In 7 Years, But Don’t Worry, ‘People Will Have Food’

September 2, 2019September 2, 2019

“People will have the food they need”.

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4 Comments on UK Manufacturing Shrinks Fastest In 7 Years, But Don’t Worry, ‘People Will Have Food’

China’s Black Swan Yuan Fixes Are The Market’s New Plunge Protection

September 1, 2019September 1, 2019

That, the bank marveled, “is a 6 standard deviation move”.

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1 Comment on China’s Black Swan Yuan Fixes Are The Market’s New Plunge Protection

Trump ‘More Receptive’ To Going ‘Well Beyond Trade’ In China Fight: Report

September 1, 2019September 2, 2019

“First and foremost as a national security threat”.

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10 Comments on Trump ‘More Receptive’ To Going ‘Well Beyond Trade’ In China Fight: Report

Argentina Imposes Currency Controls As End Game Beckons

September 1, 2019September 1, 2019

And the crisis worsens.

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3 Comments on Argentina Imposes Currency Controls As End Game Beckons

One Bank’s Clients Complain ‘The Sheer Volume’ Of Tweets Makes It Impossible To Hold Positions

September 1, 2019

In other words, forecasting the next turn is impossible.

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2 Comments on One Bank’s Clients Complain ‘The Sheer Volume’ Of Tweets Makes It Impossible To Hold Positions

A Critical Week Looms For The US Economy, With Special Emphasis On Friday

September 1, 2019September 1, 2019

Another frantic Friday in the cards?

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1 Comment on A Critical Week Looms For The US Economy, With Special Emphasis On Friday

Amusement Parks For Angry Citizens

September 1, 2019September 1, 2019

“The arrival of Trump was an extension of Fox’s vision beyond media”.

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5 Comments on Amusement Parks For Angry Citizens

Nobody Knows What’s Next As Trump’s ‘Crazy Like A Fox’ Strategy Keeps Markets Guessing

August 31, 2019September 1, 2019

…but it’s still madness.

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3 Comments on Nobody Knows What’s Next As Trump’s ‘Crazy Like A Fox’ Strategy Keeps Markets Guessing

Markets Just Witnessed The Best Month For US Government Bond Returns Since 2008 – What Now?

August 31, 2019

Congrats are in order for anyone who bet on a continuation of this year’s rally.

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1 Comment on Markets Just Witnessed The Best Month For US Government Bond Returns Since 2008 – What Now?

As Hong Kong Chaos Escalates To Molotov Cocktails, One Bank Says Recession ‘Unavoidable’

August 31, 2019September 4, 2019

Chaos beckons.

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16 Comments on As Hong Kong Chaos Escalates To Molotov Cocktails, One Bank Says Recession ‘Unavoidable’

‘It Was A Mistake To Trust Zarif’: US Sanctions Iranian Tanker Said Headed To Syria

August 30, 2019November 18, 2021

“I hope it changes course”.

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2 Comments on ‘It Was A Mistake To Trust Zarif’: US Sanctions Iranian Tanker Said Headed To Syria

Trump Says September China Talks Still On, But Tariffs To Go Ahead On Sunday

August 30, 2019August 31, 2019

He also said that when it comes to Mar-a-Lago and the hurricane, Mar-a-Lago is on its own.

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3 Comments on Trump Says September China Talks Still On, But Tariffs To Go Ahead On Sunday

What’s Behind Friday’s ‘Crazy’ Euro Collapse

August 30, 2019August 30, 2019

Lots of things, probably.

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Things Fall Apart For MAGA Economy As Consumer Sentiment Crashes To Trump-Era Low

August 30, 2019November 18, 2021

“…such tactics act to increase uncertainty and diminish consumer spending at home”.

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3 Comments on Things Fall Apart For MAGA Economy As Consumer Sentiment Crashes To Trump-Era Low

‘Dear Mr. President, Please Don’t Ruin The Holidays’: Trade Groups Beg For 11th-Hour Tariff Delay

August 30, 2019August 30, 2019

“We are writing with an urgent request that you postpone all tariff rate increases on Chinese goods”.

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1 Comment on ‘Dear Mr. President, Please Don’t Ruin The Holidays’: Trade Groups Beg For 11th-Hour Tariff Delay

Trump Blasts ‘Weak Companies’, ‘Fed Problem’ ‘Crazy’ Euro In Traditional Friday Meltdown

August 30, 2019

“Sounds good, doesn’t it?”

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6 Comments on Trump Blasts ‘Weak Companies’, ‘Fed Problem’ ‘Crazy’ Euro In Traditional Friday Meltdown

Why Nomura’s McElligott Thinks 3,050 On The S&P Is ‘In Play’ Through Mid-September

August 30, 2019November 21, 2021

“Gamma gravity” time.

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2 Comments on Why Nomura’s McElligott Thinks 3,050 On The S&P Is ‘In Play’ Through Mid-September

Your Daily Economic Downturn Warning Comes Courtesy Of Goldman’s Analyst Index

August 30, 2019

We’re gonna need more “insurance” cuts.

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Central Banks Need To ‘Disappoint Markets’: On Way Out Door, Nowotny Says ECB Won’t Buy Stocks

August 30, 2019August 30, 2019

“I am of the opinion that central banks should be the decisive institution”.

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1 Comment on Central Banks Need To ‘Disappoint Markets’: On Way Out Door, Nowotny Says ECB Won’t Buy Stocks

For War-Weary Markets, China’s Daily Press Briefings Matter More Than ECB Hawks

August 30, 2019August 30, 2019

“Effective communications” – from China’s Foreign Ministry and from the ECB’s Sabine Lautenschlaege.

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Leave a Comment on For War-Weary Markets, China’s Daily Press Briefings Matter More Than ECB Hawks

‘A Perfect Experiment For Soros Reflexivity’: Trump, Trade And Lessons From Presidential Score Cards Past

August 29, 2019August 30, 2019

“The dynamics between a potential recession, trade war, and the political business cycle should be a perfect experiment”.

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Leave a Comment on ‘A Perfect Experiment For Soros Reflexivity’: Trump, Trade And Lessons From Presidential Score Cards Past

Beto O’Rourke Promises To ‘End Trump’s Disastrous War’ In Newly-Released Trade Plan

August 29, 2019

“Trump’s disastrous trade war, which he claims was designed to save American jobs, has done just the opposite”.

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1 Comment on Beto O’Rourke Promises To ‘End Trump’s Disastrous War’ In Newly-Released Trade Plan

How Christine Lagarde Will Run The ECB, In Her Own Words

August 29, 2019August 29, 2019

“Policy normalization is premature”.

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1 Comment on How Christine Lagarde Will Run The ECB, In Her Own Words

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

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  • WMD on The Capex Catch-22
  • Gerard Jones on Let’s Talk Blue Waves
  • WMD on Let’s Talk Blue Waves

Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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