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Featured

The Capex Catch-22

November 3, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Someone’s Got Work For You

    November 3, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Tech Got No Love This Earnings Season

    November 3, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Have The Hyper-Scalers Lost Their Minds?

    November 2, 2026November 2, 2026

Markets

Apple Sets A Bunch Of Records. Misses In China

November 2, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Sell-Side Sarcasm: New And Improved!

    November 2, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Weekly: The Leveraged Buildout (Speculative Gravity Control)

    October 31, 2026November 2, 2026
  • The Problem, In A Nutshell…

    October 30, 2026November 2, 2026
  • What’s What And WTF?

    October 30, 2026November 1, 2026

economy

Debbie Downers Amid The Renaissance

November 2, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Polls, Projectiles And Payrolls

    November 1, 2026November 2, 2026
  • ‘Remains Elevated’

    October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Boom!

    October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Dissembling Strategery

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

Geopolitics

Let’s Talk Blue Waves

November 1, 2026November 2, 2026

Lagarde Versus Le Pen?

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026

The Tragic Irony Of The Israeli State

October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

Duly Noted

An ARM And A Leg

October 28, 2026October 30, 2026

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

‘Even Short-Lived Rotations Could Be Powerful’: Goldman Weighs In On Momentum Massacre, Factor Turmoil

September 11, 2019November 23, 2019

“The triggers in the short run could be geopolitical”.

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3 Comments on ‘Even Short-Lived Rotations Could Be Powerful’: Goldman Weighs In On Momentum Massacre, Factor Turmoil

German Economy To Enter Recession This Quarter As Trump ‘Poisons’ Investment: IfW

September 11, 2019September 11, 2019

“The German economy is facing one of the weakest years since the financial crisis”.

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Hu Xijin Tips Stimulus, Mocks Trump’s ‘Hilarious Analysis’ As China Doesn’t Exempt US Farm Products In Tariff Waivers

September 11, 2019September 11, 2019

“Odd and hilarious analysis”.

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Leave a Comment on Hu Xijin Tips Stimulus, Mocks Trump’s ‘Hilarious Analysis’ As China Doesn’t Exempt US Farm Products In Tariff Waivers

Trump Demands Negative Rates, Calls Jay Powell, Fed ‘Boneheads’ In Wild Screed

September 11, 2019September 11, 2019

“The USA should always be paying the the lowest rate”.

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4 Comments on Trump Demands Negative Rates, Calls Jay Powell, Fed ‘Boneheads’ In Wild Screed

It’s ‘August In Reverse’ As Bond Selloff Worsens

September 10, 2019September 10, 2019

This comes with the obligatory caveat that a single tweet could send everyone scurrying to safety, pushing yields back lower.

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2 Comments on It’s ‘August In Reverse’ As Bond Selloff Worsens

Trump, Navarro Plot Executive Order Targeting Chinese Fentanyl Shipments: Report

September 10, 2019September 11, 2019

The push is clearly aimed at China, but the order will not be limited to the country.

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3 Comments on Trump, Navarro Plot Executive Order Targeting Chinese Fentanyl Shipments: Report

Here Are The States At The Highest Risk Of Recession

September 10, 2019

Hint: Michigan may be in trouble, and it’s a battleground state.

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Marko Kolanovic Weighs In On This Week’s Dramatic Factor Rotations, Delivers Near-Term Market Outlook

September 10, 2019November 23, 2019

“By just looking at the price of the S&P 500 one cannot see the true state of equity markets”.

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4 Comments on Marko Kolanovic Weighs In On This Week’s Dramatic Factor Rotations, Delivers Near-Term Market Outlook

America’s National Security ‘Absolutely Not A Mess’, Steve Mnuchin Tells Raucous Press Briefing

September 10, 2019September 10, 2019

“Loud shouting, hollering and hand waving”.

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3 Comments on America’s National Security ‘Absolutely Not A Mess’, Steve Mnuchin Tells Raucous Press Briefing

Trump Fires John Bolton. And His Mustache.

September 10, 2019November 21, 2021

“I informed John Bolton last night that his services are no longer needed”.

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8 Comments on Trump Fires John Bolton. And His Mustache.

US, China Discussing Text Of Trade Agreement, Beijing May Buy Farm Goods: Report

September 10, 2019September 10, 2019

Take it all with a grain – or maybe a whole shaker – of salt.

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Six In 10 Americans Say A Recession Is Likely Within The Next Year

September 10, 2019September 10, 2019

Yet another blow to the MAGA “miracle” narrative.

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4 Comments on Six In 10 Americans Say A Recession Is Likely Within The Next Year

Nomura’s McElligott On Monday Momentum Massacre: ‘One Of The More Stunning Trades In Modern Market History’

September 10, 2019November 23, 2019

“And yet HILARIOUSLY, Joe Schmoe retail investor looking at simple Index returns wouldn’t have had ANY idea of the calamity occurring”.

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7 Comments on Nomura’s McElligott On Monday Momentum Massacre: ‘One Of The More Stunning Trades In Modern Market History’

Liquidity Is Improving In Stressed Markets, Goldman Says – But Don’t Let Down Your Guard

September 10, 2019

“Markets dominated by computers have different characteristics than those run by people”.

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Leave a Comment on Liquidity Is Improving In Stressed Markets, Goldman Says – But Don’t Let Down Your Guard

The Ride Of The Valkyries: SocGen’s Juckes Has Visions Of ‘Bond Vigilante Gun-Ships’

September 10, 2019September 10, 2019

Don’t get too excited – it’s a correction, “not a turn in the trend”.

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2 Comments on The Ride Of The Valkyries: SocGen’s Juckes Has Visions Of ‘Bond Vigilante Gun-Ships’

What Happens If The Nascent Bond Selloff Has Legs?

September 9, 2019September 9, 2019

Don’t burst my bubble.

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1 Comment on What Happens If The Nascent Bond Selloff Has Legs?

Boris Johnson Loses Sixth Vote In Six Days As Election Gambit Fails Again After Hours Of Absurdity

September 9, 2019September 10, 2019

“The moment will come!”

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Wilbur Ross Threatened To Fire Top NOAA Employees Who Disputed Trump’s Hurricane Dorian Tweets

September 9, 2019September 9, 2019

“Dr. Jacobs was told that the political staff at NOAA would be fired if the situation was not fixed”.

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6 Comments on Wilbur Ross Threatened To Fire Top NOAA Employees Who Disputed Trump’s Hurricane Dorian Tweets

Massive Momentum Factor Unwind Triggers ‘Epic’ 7 Z-Score Performance Bleed

September 9, 2019September 9, 2019

Needless to say, this isn’t the best news for some folks.

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3 Comments on Massive Momentum Factor Unwind Triggers ‘Epic’ 7 Z-Score Performance Bleed

Turkish Lira Warily Eyes US Sanctions Threat, Erdogan Rate Cut Promises

September 9, 2019

“We’re looking at that”.

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Yes, Maria Bartiromo, Steve Mnuchin Actually Can Lie About The Economy, Thanks For Asking

September 9, 2019September 9, 2019

“Can you really say that”?

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2 Comments on Yes, Maria Bartiromo, Steve Mnuchin Actually Can Lie About The Economy, Thanks For Asking

Dear AT&T, Paul Singer Is Coming And Donald Trump Is Tweeting – Enjoy!

September 9, 2019September 9, 2019

But hey, at least the shares are up.

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1 Comment on Dear AT&T, Paul Singer Is Coming And Donald Trump Is Tweeting – Enjoy!

Nomura’s McElligott Talks The ‘Pain Trade’ And What More Bearish Rates Action Would Mean For Equities

September 9, 2019

“…the current consensus / ‘Momentum’ positioning construct is a pure reflection of the ‘Duration Trade'”.

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‘Who Thought This Was A Good Idea’? Taliban Says More Americans Will Die After Trump Cancels Dinner Date

September 9, 2019September 10, 2019

“Losses to lives and assets will increase”.

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6 Comments on ‘Who Thought This Was A Good Idea’? Taliban Says More Americans Will Die After Trump Cancels Dinner Date

‘Less Growth, More Inflation’: Goldman Sees Stagflationary Trend For Trump’s Economy

September 9, 2019September 9, 2019

“The tariffs are about to show up more clearly”.

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Behold! JPMorgan Unveils The ‘Volfefe’ Index

September 8, 2019September 24, 2020

“Trade talk, political campaigning and tweets have contributed to volatility, from China to Fed policy

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1 Comment on Behold! JPMorgan Unveils The ‘Volfefe’ Index

Expect More Late-Night Tweets, Because China Will Be Cutting Another Key Rate Soon

September 8, 2019

Friday’s RRR cut presages more easing – it’s just a question of timing.

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1 Comment on Expect More Late-Night Tweets, Because China Will Be Cutting Another Key Rate Soon

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

  • WMD on The Capex Catch-22
  • Gerard Jones on Let’s Talk Blue Waves
  • WMD on Let’s Talk Blue Waves
  • T-Dog on The Capex Catch-22

Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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