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Featured

The Capex Catch-22

November 3, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Someone’s Got Work For You

    November 3, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Tech Got No Love This Earnings Season

    November 3, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Have The Hyper-Scalers Lost Their Minds?

    November 2, 2026November 2, 2026

Markets

Apple Sets A Bunch Of Records. Misses In China

November 2, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Sell-Side Sarcasm: New And Improved!

    November 2, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Weekly: The Leveraged Buildout (Speculative Gravity Control)

    October 31, 2026November 2, 2026
  • The Problem, In A Nutshell…

    October 30, 2026November 2, 2026
  • What’s What And WTF?

    October 30, 2026November 1, 2026

economy

Debbie Downers Amid The Renaissance

November 2, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Polls, Projectiles And Payrolls

    November 1, 2026November 2, 2026
  • ‘Remains Elevated’

    October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Boom!

    October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Dissembling Strategery

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

Geopolitics

Let’s Talk Blue Waves

November 1, 2026November 2, 2026

Lagarde Versus Le Pen?

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026

The Tragic Irony Of The Israeli State

October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

Duly Noted

An ARM And A Leg

October 28, 2026October 30, 2026

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

Trump To Get ‘List Of Potential Targets To Strike In Iran’ On Friday: Officials

September 19, 2019September 19, 2019

“These kinds of targets could include the sites where Iran launches cruise missiles”.

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7 Comments on Trump To Get ‘List Of Potential Targets To Strike In Iran’ On Friday: Officials

‘Insidious’ Trade War Has ‘Destroyed Growth In International Trade’, OECD Chief Economist Fumes

September 19, 2019September 19, 2019

“When companies do not know what tomorrow will bring, they exercise their ‘wait-and-see option”‘.

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Leave a Comment on ‘Insidious’ Trade War Has ‘Destroyed Growth In International Trade’, OECD Chief Economist Fumes

OECD Calls For ‘Urgent’ Action As Growth Outlook Slashed To Weakest Since Crisis

September 19, 2019

The trade war is “jeopardizing our economic future”.

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3 Comments on OECD Calls For ‘Urgent’ Action As Growth Outlook Slashed To Weakest Since Crisis

This ‘QE’ Is Different: Fed Balance Sheet Expansion Is Coming, But Nuance May Get Lost, McElligott Says

September 19, 2019September 19, 2019

“Instead, the balance sheet discussion is suddenly a ‘NOW’ thing”.

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1 Comment on This ‘QE’ Is Different: Fed Balance Sheet Expansion Is Coming, But Nuance May Get Lost, McElligott Says

Watch: Trump Tells Fox Jay Powell’s Job Is ‘Yeah, Safe. Sure, Why Not?’

September 19, 2019September 19, 2019

“I mean, he’s got a job”.

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Leave a Comment on Watch: Trump Tells Fox Jay Powell’s Job Is ‘Yeah, Safe. Sure, Why Not?’

Iran’s Zarif Tells CNN He Wishes Trump Weren’t Crazy, But ‘All-Out War’ May Be Coming

September 19, 2019September 19, 2019

“I think the US deserves to be more rational”.

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Leave a Comment on Iran’s Zarif Tells CNN He Wishes Trump Weren’t Crazy, But ‘All-Out War’ May Be Coming

Fed’s ‘Band-Aid’ Approach To Repo Chaos Opens Door To More Volatility, But Fear Likely Overblown

September 18, 2019September 19, 2019

“What we have seen this week is not a crisis but a symptom that we have reentered an old regime”.

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1 Comment on Fed’s ‘Band-Aid’ Approach To Repo Chaos Opens Door To More Volatility, But Fear Likely Overblown

The Macro Tourist: Inflation Is ‘The Best Long-Term Macro Risk Reward Trade Out There’…

September 18, 2019September 18, 2019

“Contrary to the debt-will-overwhelm-us crowd”…

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9 Comments on The Macro Tourist: Inflation Is ‘The Best Long-Term Macro Risk Reward Trade Out There’…

Trump To Lindsey Graham: ‘Plenty Of Time To Do Dastardly Things’ To The Iranians

September 18, 2019September 18, 2019

“How did going into Iraq work out”?

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7 Comments on Trump To Lindsey Graham: ‘Plenty Of Time To Do Dastardly Things’ To The Iranians

‘Terrible Communicator’ Powell Inexplicably Coy On Funding Squeeze As Trump Laments Another Fed ‘Fail’

September 18, 2019September 18, 2019

“No ‘guts’, no sense, no vision!”

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3 Comments on ‘Terrible Communicator’ Powell Inexplicably Coy On Funding Squeeze As Trump Laments Another Fed ‘Fail’

Fed Cuts Rates In 7-3 Decision, IOER Tweaked, Committee Divided On Future Easing

September 18, 2019November 21, 2021

Suffice to say the Fed is operating under duress – and on multiple fronts.

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3 Comments on Fed Cuts Rates In 7-3 Decision, IOER Tweaked, Committee Divided On Future Easing

‘Unquestionably Sponsored By Iran’: The Saudis Have Some Debris They’d Like You To Scope Out

September 18, 2019September 18, 2019

“We are working right now to share the information that we have”.

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17 Comments on ‘Unquestionably Sponsored By Iran’: The Saudis Have Some Debris They’d Like You To Scope Out

Charlie McElligott Talks QE ‘Muscle Memory’ And ‘The Trillion-Dollar Question’ For FOMC Meeting

September 18, 2019September 18, 2019

“The TRILLION DOLLAR QUESTION today is this”…

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Leave a Comment on Charlie McElligott Talks QE ‘Muscle Memory’ And ‘The Trillion-Dollar Question’ For FOMC Meeting

Trump Announces ‘Substantial’ New Iran Sanctions Despite Having Already Sanctioned ‘Substantially’ Everything

September 18, 2019September 18, 2019

It wasn’t immediately clear what else there is to sanction.

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2 Comments on Trump Announces ‘Substantial’ New Iran Sanctions Despite Having Already Sanctioned ‘Substantially’ Everything

Nomura: Fed ‘Likely’ To Announce ‘QE-Lite’ On Wednesday

September 18, 2019September 18, 2019

Don’t forget the nuance, though.

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1 Comment on Nomura: Fed ‘Likely’ To Announce ‘QE-Lite’ On Wednesday

Here’s How The Oil Market Would Deal With Another Massive Saudi Outage

September 18, 2019

“The threat of sidelining nearly 6% of global oil production is no longer a hypothetical”.

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oil3 Comments on Here’s How The Oil Market Would Deal With Another Massive Saudi Outage

Iran Calls Aramco Attacks ‘Warning’ From Houthis, Denies Role In ‘9/11 For Saudi Arabia’

September 18, 2019September 18, 2019

“They attacked an industrial center as a warning and a lesson for you”.

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7 Comments on Iran Calls Aramco Attacks ‘Warning’ From Houthis, Denies Role In ‘9/11 For Saudi Arabia’

Jeff Gundlach’s ‘QE-Lite’ Call, And Why The Fed May Announce Outright Asset Purchases On Wednesday

September 17, 2019September 18, 2019

“They are baby-stepping their way to doing QE”.

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2 Comments on Jeff Gundlach’s ‘QE-Lite’ Call, And Why The Fed May Announce Outright Asset Purchases On Wednesday

Rates As ‘Patient Zero’ And The Fate Of September’s ‘Rotation Flirtation’

September 17, 2019November 23, 2019

The situation is “fluid”.

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Leave a Comment on Rates As ‘Patient Zero’ And The Fate Of September’s ‘Rotation Flirtation’

FedEx Bludgeoned On Grievous Guide Down, But Is The Trade War Really The Problem?

September 17, 2019September 17, 2019

Bellwether alert…

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1 Comment on FedEx Bludgeoned On Grievous Guide Down, But Is The Trade War Really The Problem?

Mike Pence Knows Exactly What ‘Locked And Loaded’ Means Even If Marc Short Doesn’t

September 17, 2019

“I promise you, we’re ready”.

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Leave a Comment on Mike Pence Knows Exactly What ‘Locked And Loaded’ Means Even If Marc Short Doesn’t

Saudi Oil Supplies Well On Way To Being Restored, Energy Minister Abdulaziz Bin Salman Says

September 17, 2019September 17, 2019

“The attacks will not stop Aramco’s preparations”.

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oil6 Comments on Saudi Oil Supplies Well On Way To Being Restored, Energy Minister Abdulaziz Bin Salman Says

US Pinpoints ‘Exact Locations’ In Iran From Which Saudi Attacks Were Launched: Official

September 17, 2019September 17, 2019

The Trump administration appears to be on the verge of following the Crown Prince into dark waters.

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4 Comments on US Pinpoints ‘Exact Locations’ In Iran From Which Saudi Attacks Were Launched: Official

New York Fed Forced To Intervene After Funding Squeeze Goes Mental

September 17, 2019September 17, 2019

Break glass in case of emergency.

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12 Comments on New York Fed Forced To Intervene After Funding Squeeze Goes Mental

Days, Weeks, Months? Oil Plunges As ‘Sources’ Say Saudis ‘Close’ To Restoring 70% Of Production

September 17, 2019September 17, 2019

Let’s play headline hockey.

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oil2 Comments on Days, Weeks, Months? Oil Plunges As ‘Sources’ Say Saudis ‘Close’ To Restoring 702 Of Production

Khamenei Rules Out Talks With US Citing Trump’s Inability To Keep His Story Straight

September 17, 2019September 17, 2019

“Such statements come from their disheveled policies”.

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Leave a Comment on Khamenei Rules Out Talks With US Citing Trump’s Inability To Keep His Story Straight

‘The Levee Has Broken’: Misbehaving Repo Market Underscores Loss Of Fed Control

September 17, 2019September 17, 2019

“Horrible timing”.

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3 Comments on ‘The Levee Has Broken’: Misbehaving Repo Market Underscores Loss Of Fed Control

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

  • SeaTurtle on The Capex Catch-22
  • Wave Dash on Someone’s Got Work For You
  • T-Dog on The Capex Catch-22
  • T-Dog on Debbie Downers Amid The Renaissance

Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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