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Featured

The Capex Catch-22

November 3, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Someone’s Got Work For You

    November 3, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Tech Got No Love This Earnings Season

    November 3, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Have The Hyper-Scalers Lost Their Minds?

    November 2, 2026November 2, 2026

Markets

Apple Sets A Bunch Of Records. Misses In China

November 2, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Sell-Side Sarcasm: New And Improved!

    November 2, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Weekly: The Leveraged Buildout (Speculative Gravity Control)

    October 31, 2026November 2, 2026
  • The Problem, In A Nutshell…

    October 30, 2026November 2, 2026
  • What’s What And WTF?

    October 30, 2026November 1, 2026

economy

Debbie Downers Amid The Renaissance

November 2, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Polls, Projectiles And Payrolls

    November 1, 2026November 2, 2026
  • ‘Remains Elevated’

    October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Boom!

    October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Dissembling Strategery

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

Geopolitics

Let’s Talk Blue Waves

November 1, 2026November 2, 2026

Lagarde Versus Le Pen?

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026

The Tragic Irony Of The Israeli State

October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

Duly Noted

An ARM And A Leg

October 28, 2026October 30, 2026

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

An Acute ‘Pain Trade’ Is Unfolding Beneath The Market Surface And Nobody Is Paying Attention -Yet

September 16, 2019September 17, 2019

“Classic ‘stability breeding instability'”.

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2 Comments on An Acute ‘Pain Trade’ Is Unfolding Beneath The Market Surface And Nobody Is Paying Attention -Yet

Trump Slips Market Pair Of Bullish Catalysts With Japan Trade Deal, $40 Billion Margin Clemency

September 16, 2019

Perhaps sensing that markets weren’t particularly enamored with the idea of $500 oil…

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Leave a Comment on Trump Slips Market Pair Of Bullish Catalysts With Japan Trade Deal, $40 Billion Margin Clemency

Trump Says ‘Looking Like’ Iran Responsible For Saudi Attacks, Will ‘Let You Know’ If War Is Coming

September 16, 2019September 16, 2019

“I don’t want to have war with anybody”.

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4 Comments on Trump Says ‘Looking Like’ Iran Responsible For Saudi Attacks, Will ‘Let You Know’ If War Is Coming

Here’s How Far Oil Prices Have To Rise To Hurt The S&P 500, According To History

September 16, 2019September 16, 2019

We’ve got a ways to go yet, based on historical correlation anyway.

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oil3 Comments on Here’s How Far Oil Prices Have To Rise To Hurt The S&P 500, According To History

Marko Kolanovic Makes Big Call Amid Oil Spike: ‘The New XIV Trade Is Unwinding’

September 16, 2019September 16, 2019

“These trades worked well until the rotation started, and now are in the early stages of a collapse”.

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4 Comments on Marko Kolanovic Makes Big Call Amid Oil Spike: ‘The New XIV Trade Is Unwinding’

Macro Tourist: ‘Don’t Give Away Your Crude Gamma’, There’s ‘More Geopolitical Risk’ Ahead

September 16, 2019September 16, 2019

“We are still miles away from a true bull market in crude”…

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oilLeave a Comment on Macro Tourist: ‘Don’t Give Away Your Crude Gamma’, There’s ‘More Geopolitical Risk’ Ahead

Saudis Say ‘Investigation’ Shows Iranian Weapons Used In Aramco Attacks

September 16, 2019September 16, 2019

“We’ll see?”

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10 Comments on Saudis Say ‘Investigation’ Shows Iranian Weapons Used In Aramco Attacks

These Investors Are Highly Concerned About A US Recession – Even After Recent Good News

September 16, 2019

It was probably worse last month.

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Leave a Comment on These Investors Are Highly Concerned About A US Recession – Even After Recent Good News

Nomura’s McElligott On Saudi-Iran Proxy War And Possible Implications For Momentum Unwind Trade

September 16, 2019

“Another abrupt ‘about-face’ for markets”.

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oilLeave a Comment on Nomura’s McElligott On Saudi-Iran Proxy War And Possible Implications For Momentum Unwind Trade

Saudi Aramco May Delay IPO After Strikes: Reports

September 16, 2019September 16, 2019

Now, though, the timing is in doubt.

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Trump Cites ‘Oil Hit’ In Complex Calculus For ‘Big Interest Rate Drop, Stimulus!’

September 16, 2019September 16, 2019

“Thank you, Mr. President!”

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Leave a Comment on Trump Cites ‘Oil Hit’ In Complex Calculus For ‘Big Interest Rate Drop, Stimulus!’

‘The Single Biggest Supply Disruption Ever’: World In Shock As Reality Of Saudi Oil Attacks Sinks In

September 16, 2019September 16, 2019

“Saudi is often viewed as the ‘central bank of oil'”.

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oil2 Comments on ‘The Single Biggest Supply Disruption Ever’: World In Shock As Reality Of Saudi Oil Attacks Sinks In

China Posts Huge Industrial Production Miss, As Rebound From 17-Year Low Fails To Pan Out

September 15, 2019September 15, 2019

The market could have done without this.

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Leave a Comment on China Posts Huge Industrial Production Miss, As Rebound From 17-Year Low Fails To Pan Out

Trump ‘Locked And Loaded’ As US Identifies ‘Culprit’ In Saudi Attacks

September 15, 2019September 16, 2019

Unnamed US officials said cruise missiles, precision-guided munitions may have been used in the strikes.

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13 Comments on Trump ‘Locked And Loaded’ As US Identifies ‘Culprit’ In Saudi Attacks

Jerome Powell’s Fed Stares Down Trump, Trade And Markets In Pivotal September FOMC

September 15, 2019September 15, 2019

Steel yourselves. The main event cometh.

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Leave a Comment on Jerome Powell’s Fed Stares Down Trump, Trade And Markets In Pivotal September FOMC

Oil Explodes Higher, Trump Rushes To Stop Surge With Reserves Tweet

September 15, 2019September 16, 2019

He tweeted five minutes before the start of trading.

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oil3 Comments on Oil Explodes Higher, Trump Rushes To Stop Surge With Reserves Tweet

On Bombing Iran, Kellyanne Conway Says ‘Important’ To Act Rashly, Not Study It For Too Long

September 15, 2019

On the bright side, Conway didn’t rule out diplomacy either.

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15 Comments on On Bombing Iran, Kellyanne Conway Says ‘Important’ To Act Rashly, Not Study It For Too Long

Boris Johnson Calls Himself The Incredible Hulk, Which Tells You A Lot About How Brexit Is Going

September 15, 2019

“The madder Hulk gets, the stronger Hulk gets”.

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Leave a Comment on Boris Johnson Calls Himself The Incredible Hulk, Which Tells You A Lot About How Brexit Is Going

Iran Warns Of ‘Full-Fledged War’ If Attacked Over Aramco Disaster. Analysts Fret Over Possible $100 Oil

September 15, 2019September 15, 2019

“This attack introduces a new, irreversible risk premium into the market”.

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oil23 Comments on Iran Warns Of ‘Full-Fledged War’ If Attacked Over Aramco Disaster. Analysts Fret Over Possible $100 Oil

Saudis May Need ‘Weeks’ To Restore Oil Output Lost In Saturday’s Attacks

September 15, 2019September 15, 2019

“God willing”.

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oil4 Comments on Saudis May Need ‘Weeks’ To Restore Oil Output Lost In Saturday’s Attacks

Saudi Oil Exports To Be ‘Normal’ This Week On Stock Draws, Damage From ‘Major Escalation’ Was ‘Big’

September 15, 2019September 15, 2019

“Overnight” fixes were not possible.

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oil1 Comment on Saudi Oil Exports To Be ‘Normal’ This Week On Stock Draws, Damage From ‘Major Escalation’ Was ‘Big’

Saudi Stocks Needed Government Help To Avoid Plunge After Aramco Attack, Price Action Suggests

September 15, 2019November 21, 2021

“The stock market has been affected”.

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1 Comment on Saudi Stocks Needed Government Help To Avoid Plunge After Aramco Attack, Price Action Suggests

It’s Official: 5.7 Million Barrels Of Saudi Oil Production Shut After Aramco Drone Attacks

September 14, 2019

“Oil could easily trade higher by $10 or more”.

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oil4 Comments on It’s Official: 5.7 Million Barrels Of Saudi Oil Production Shut After Aramco Drone Attacks

Pompeo Says Aramco Drone Attacks Didn’t Originate In Yemen, Graham Calls For Strikes On Iran’s Oil Refineries

September 14, 2019September 15, 2019

“This is the mother lode for an attack on Saudi infrastructure”.

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oil7 Comments on Pompeo Says Aramco Drone Attacks Didn’t Originate In Yemen, Graham Calls For Strikes On Iran’s Oil Refineries

Nearly Half Of Saudi Oil Production Disrupted In Houthi Aramco Drone Strikes

September 14, 2019September 14, 2019

Aramco officials convened an emergency meeting to assess the situation.

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oil4 Comments on Nearly Half Of Saudi Oil Production Disrupted In Houthi Aramco Drone Strikes

Global Currency Wars – In The Trenches

September 14, 2019

Hunker down.

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1 Comment on Global Currency Wars – In The Trenches

How Draghi’s ‘QE Infinity’ Actually Paves The Way For Fiscal Policy To ‘Take Over’

September 14, 2019September 14, 2019

“An important stepping stone”.

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3 Comments on How Draghi’s ‘QE Infinity’ Actually Paves The Way For Fiscal Policy To ‘Take Over’

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

  • WMD on The Capex Catch-22
  • WMD on The Capex Catch-22
  • SeaTurtle on The Capex Catch-22
  • Wave Dash on Someone’s Got Work For You

Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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