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Featured

Buy The Dip? (Honeypot Training)

November 9, 2026November 9, 2026
  • What Are Treasurys Telling Us?

    November 9, 2026November 9, 2026
  • Megaspeed Indeed. (Two Huangs Don’t Make A Right)

    November 9, 2026November 9, 2026
  • Jensen Got Honey-Trapped

    November 8, 2026November 8, 2026

Markets

Weekly: Melodrama

November 7, 2026November 9, 2026
  • ‘Dem Fatale’ Crashes The AI Party

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026
  • On Wall Street: Crash And F’in’ Burn

    November 5, 2026November 7, 2026
  • Did Democrats Just Kill ‘New 60/40’?

    November 5, 2026November 6, 2026
  • Um, Excuse Me, But Your Chips Are Bleeding

    November 5, 2026November 6, 2026

economy

Inflation Week!

November 8, 2026November 9, 2026
  • Inflation Fatalism Has Set In

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026
  • Drunken Monkey Darts

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026
  • ‘Tis The Season! For Temporary Fulfillment Jobs

    November 5, 2026November 6, 2026
  • Senseless Iran War Triggers BoE Hike, 5% Inflation Warning

    November 5, 2026November 5, 2026

Geopolitics

Rasputin Presiding

November 8, 2026November 9, 2026

Tsunami

November 4, 2026November 5, 2026

Let’s Talk Blue Waves

November 1, 2026November 2, 2026

Duly Noted

US Jobless Claims Chase History

November 5, 2026November 7, 2026

Tech Got No Love This Earnings Season

November 3, 2026November 8, 2026

Demons In The Hills

August 28, 2017

“There may be all sorts of dragons and monsters up in those hills.”

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Bloomberg: Yellen Sent Trump A Message – And It Was The Right One

August 28, 2017

“Nostalgia for the regulatory neglect that prevailed before the crash is wholly misplaced.”

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3 Comments on Bloomberg: Yellen Sent Trump A Message – And It Was The Right One

Rice Futures Hit 22-Month High As Uncle Ben Says ‘I Told You So’

August 28, 2017

“What may be driving the market the most is if you look at the hurricane center’s track for what is left of Harvey, it puts it right in the middle of Delta rice country.”

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1 Comment on Rice Futures Hit 22-Month High As Uncle Ben Says ‘I Told You So’

RV Stocks Soar On Expected Harvey-Related Demand

August 28, 2017August 28, 2017

Reminder: We’ve been long RVs since day one…

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2 Comments on RV Stocks Soar On Expected Harvey-Related Demand

Are Rex Tillerson And Jim Mattis About To Quit On Trump?

August 28, 2017October 18, 2019

“Our country right now, it’s got problems we don’t have in the military”…

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10 Comments on Are Rex Tillerson And Jim Mattis About To Quit On Trump?

Bezos Defies Economics, Lowers Avocado Prices On First Day As Whole Foods Overlord

August 28, 2017

And Monday is the day when Bezos relegated Whole Foods’ derogatory “Whole Paycheck” nickname to the dustbin of retail history in favor of the chain’s new nickname: “Organic Dollar General.”

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1 Comment on Bezos Defies Economics, Lowers Avocado Prices On First Day As Whole Foods Overlord

One Trader Explains Why Jackson Hole Was A Whole Bunch Of Nothing

August 28, 2017

“But there was a far smarter reason why Jackson Hole reverted back to an academic exercise and post-GFC policy retrospective.”

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Yuan Rides Ridiculous Hot Streak, Now Up 9 Sessions In A Row

August 28, 2017August 28, 2017

Boy, I’ll tell you what, the yuan has got come serious momentum. 

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Republicans ‘Need To Think In Terms Of A Shadow Government’

August 28, 2017

“The damage Mr. Trump has inflicted on the Republican Party is already enormous.”

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2 Comments on Republicans ‘Need To Think In Terms Of A Shadow Government’

Key Calls (Monday): Upgrades, Downgrades & Initiations

August 28, 2017August 28, 2017

You need an upgrade.

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The Seventh Summer: Cognitive Instability From Hendrix To Trump

August 27, 2017January 26, 2019

“…history reminds us that there exists a greater proximity between laughable and dreadful than calmer times would admit.”

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Damned Data – Full Week Ahead Preview

August 27, 2017

Ok, so the overarching narrative for this week shouldn’t be materially different from last week

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As Peso Slides, Mexico Reminds Trump: ‘We’re Not Paying For That Wall Under Any Circumstances’

August 27, 2017August 27, 2017

On the bright side…

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2 Comments on As Peso Slides, Mexico Reminds Trump: ‘We’re Not Paying For That Wall Under Any Circumstances’

Joe Biden Is On A Quest To Save America’s ‘Soul’

August 27, 2017

“I was living history—and reliving it—at the same time. And the images racing through my mind were a vivid demonstration that when it comes to race in America, hope doesn’t travel alone. It’s shadowed by a long trail of violence and hate.”

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5 Comments on Joe Biden Is On A Quest To Save America’s ‘Soul’

Specs Turn Net Long Treasurys For First Time Since June

August 27, 2017August 27, 2017

“Make of that what you will, but it certainly doesn’t look like a vote of confidence in the prospects for the Trump agenda from where we’re sitting.”

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1 Comment on Specs Turn Net Long Treasurys For First Time Since June

Bannon’s War: Breitbart Takes Aim, Calls Paul Ryan A ‘Leftist’ In Absurd New Post

August 27, 2017August 27, 2017

In a piece that carries the InfoWars-ish title “Paul Ryan Throws In With The Leftists To Attack President Trump’s Pardon”, Steve Bannon’s propaganda machine writes the following…

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12 Comments on Bannon’s War: Breitbart Takes Aim, Calls Paul Ryan A ‘Leftist’ In Absurd New Post

The Risks For This Asset Class Are Asymmetrically Skewed To The Downside

August 27, 2017August 27, 2017

Given that the weaker dollar and a slow pace of policy normalization are key pillars of support for emerging markets, and given that the same thing that’s weighing on the dollar (Donald Trump) is also behind fleeting risk-off moves, it makes sense that EM would outperform USD HY. But…

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Trump Asks Twitter About NAFTA: ‘May Have To Terminate’?

August 27, 2017August 27, 2017

As usual, he has managed to cram so much absurdity into 140 characters that it’s impossible to parse it all, but the first question that comes to mind is this: why the fuck is that posed as an interrogative?  

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6 Comments on Trump Asks Twitter About NAFTA: ‘May Have To Terminate’?

‘One Man Died In His Bed’ – Welcome To Joe Arpaio’s ‘Hell’

August 27, 2017

“During the sweltering summer, the temperature could reach 115 or 120 degrees. I was in the tents when we hit 120. It was impossible to stay cool in the oppressive heat. Everyone would strip down to their underwear.”

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1 Comment on ‘One Man Died In His Bed’ – Welcome To Joe Arpaio’s ‘Hell’

150 Years After The Civil War, We Still Have A Problem

August 26, 2017August 26, 2017

Needless to say, the events that transpired in Charlottesville earlier this month and the President’s

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5 Comments on 150 Years After The Civil War, We Still Have A Problem

White Supremacist Site Stormfront Seized By Website Host After Outcry

August 26, 2017August 26, 2017

Good riddance.

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3 Comments on White Supremacist Site Stormfront Seized By Website Host After Outcry

Paul Ryan Criticizes Trump’s Arpaio Pardon In Latest Sign Of Friction

August 26, 2017

“The speaker does not agree with the decision.”

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9 Comments on Paul Ryan Criticizes Trump’s Arpaio Pardon In Latest Sign Of Friction

Joe Arpaio Pardon Is Brought To You By Alex Jones And His Vampire Invasion

August 26, 2017

Regular readers know we quite enjoy lampooning Alex Jones and his “news” outfit InfoWars. Alex

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3 Comments on Joe Arpaio Pardon Is Brought To You By Alex Jones And His Vampire Invasion

Turkish Delight: Trading ‘The Great British Selloff’

August 26, 2017

…do note that there’s a wild card here.

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1 Comment on Turkish Delight: Trading ‘The Great British Selloff’

‘For This Kind Of Person?’ USA Today Is Not Amused With Trump’s Arpaio Pardon

August 26, 2017

“Invoking the presidential pardon power for this man — former Maricopa County (Ariz.) sheriff Joe Arpaio — further shreds whatever semblance of moral authority the president retains, not to mention Republican hopes of making inroads among Hispanic voters.” 

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1 Comment on ‘For This Kind Of Person?’ USA Today Is Not Amused With Trump’s Arpaio Pardon

‘Good Luck To Everybody’: It’s ‘Hard To Predict’ How Debt Ceiling, Government Shutdown Will Play Out

August 26, 2017

Do you still have questions about the looming debt ceiling debate and the possibility of

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Thanks, Harvey: Trans Ban, Arpaio Pardon, Gorka Resignation Hit During Hurricane

August 25, 2017August 25, 2017

Wow. Talk about convenient timing. Thanks, Harvey.

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8 Comments on Thanks, Harvey: Trans Ban, Arpaio Pardon, Gorka Resignation Hit During Hurricane

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

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  • therealheisenberg on Megaspeed Indeed. (Two Huangs Don’t Make A Right)

Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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