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Featured

Debbie Downers Amid The Renaissance

November 2, 2026November 2, 2026
  • Sell-Side Sarcasm: New And Improved!

    November 2, 2026November 2, 2026
  • Let’s Talk Blue Waves

    November 1, 2026November 1, 2026
  • Polls, Projectiles And Payrolls

    November 1, 2026November 1, 2026

Markets

Weekly: The Leveraged Buildout (Speculative Gravity Control)

October 31, 2026November 2, 2026
  • The Problem, In A Nutshell…

    October 30, 2026November 2, 2026
  • What’s What And WTF?

    October 30, 2026November 1, 2026
  • Oil, Dammit!

    October 30, 2026November 1, 2026
  • My Goodness: Amazon Spent Some Money

    October 29, 2026October 31, 2026

economy

‘Remains Elevated’

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Boom!

    October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Dissembling Strategery

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026
  • Frozen Bubble

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026
  • It’s All Relative

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026

Geopolitics

Lagarde Versus Le Pen?

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026

The Tragic Irony Of The Israeli State

October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

Lula!

October 26, 2026October 27, 2026

Duly Noted

An ARM And A Leg

October 28, 2026October 30, 2026

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

‘We Have To Be A Little Wary’: Jobs Report Marred By Revisions, Overshadowed By Virus

February 7, 2020

“Markets appear sanguine, but at the very least”…

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1 Comment on ‘We Have To Be A Little Wary’: Jobs Report Marred By Revisions, Overshadowed By Virus

Jobs Report Blows Through Expectations As Labor Market Heats Up Anew

February 7, 2020February 7, 2020

This topped even the most optimistic estimates.

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2 Comments on Jobs Report Blows Through Expectations As Labor Market Heats Up Anew

Germany, Which Runs A Surplus And Can Borrow For Free, Posts Worst Industrial Production Plunge Since Crisis

February 7, 2020February 7, 2020

The YoY print was, in a word, terrible.

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Palpable Angst, ‘Deep Regret And Condolences’ As Virus Fears Return

February 7, 2020February 7, 2020

Xi, meanwhile, has a public relations problem on his hands.

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1 Comment on Palpable Angst, ‘Deep Regret And Condolences’ As Virus Fears Return

The Best-Laid Plans Of Mice, Men And Monetarists

February 6, 2020February 7, 2020

It is (past) time for a fiscal solution.

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1 Comment on The Best-Laid Plans Of Mice, Men And Monetarists

The Macro Case For Buying Stocks After This Week’s Surge Is Very Weak Indeed

February 6, 2020February 6, 2020

A deeply-ingrained Pavlovian instinct…

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7 Comments on The Macro Case For Buying Stocks After This Week’s Surge Is Very Weak Indeed

Albert Edwards: The Ice Age Is Nearing The End (Because Helicopter Money Is Coming)

February 6, 2020February 6, 2020

After surviving an earthquake and narrowly dodging a tsunami…

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4 Comments on Albert Edwards: The Ice Age Is Nearing The End (Because Helicopter Money Is Coming)

‘Horror Show’: Germany Posts Worst Factory Orders Drop In A Decade

February 6, 2020February 6, 2020

There’s no way to spin this.

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Incredible Global Rally Continues, As Tariff Non-News Resonates In Risk-On Environment

February 6, 2020February 6, 2020

Go higher and never stop.

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Eye-Popping.

February 5, 2020February 6, 2020

New virus numbers, surging stocks, tumbling Tesla and a VP on the ropes.

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1 Comment on Eye-Popping.

Mitt Romney Votes To Convict Trump. Senate Acquits On Both Charges

February 5, 2020February 5, 2020

So, acquittal it is.

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3 Comments on Mitt Romney Votes To Convict Trump. Senate Acquits On Both Charges

The Daisy Chain, ‘Crash-Up’, Equity Slingshot Setup Is Back In Play: McElligott

February 5, 2020February 5, 2020

This makes the market especially “vulnerable” to good news.

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2 Comments on The Daisy Chain, ‘Crash-Up’, Equity Slingshot Setup Is Back In Play: McElligott

Let’s Talk More Data As Trade Deficit Narrows First Time In Six Years, Services PMI Beats

February 5, 2020February 5, 2020

“Winning”?

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1 Comment on Let’s Talk More Data As Trade Deficit Narrows First Time In Six Years, Services PMI Beats

Trump’s Economic Narrative Gets Another Boost From Ridiculous ADP Blowout

February 5, 2020

The best number since May of 2015.

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1 Comment on Trump’s Economic Narrative Gets Another Boost From Ridiculous ADP Blowout

Macro Tourist Shorts Tesla, Explains What He Thinks Drove Crazy Rally

February 5, 2020February 5, 2020

“The fever has finally broken.”

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9 Comments on Macro Tourist Shorts Tesla, Explains What He Thinks Drove Crazy Rally

‘Sooner The Better’: Central Banks Hand Out Antivirals In Southeast Asia

February 5, 2020

“Adjustments” are needed.

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‘Extreme Bullishness’: Risk Assets Vaccinated

February 5, 2020February 5, 2020

Of course, it’s far too early to sound the all-clear.

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2 Comments on ‘Extreme Bullishness’: Risk Assets Vaccinated

America Is (Still) Serious About ‘President’ Pete Buttigieg

February 4, 2020February 5, 2020

What would a general election look like that pits Mayor Pete against a would-be third world strongman?

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4 Comments on America Is (Still) Serious About ‘President’ Pete Buttigieg

To The Moon.

February 4, 2020February 4, 2020

It’s quite an amazing thing.

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Larry Kudlow, Virologist: Coronavirus ‘Not In Full Flower’ Yet, Will Delay Trump’s ‘Export Boom’

February 4, 2020February 4, 2020

“That is true.”

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‘Monstrous’ Bond Rally Could Reverse Near-Term, Nomura’s McElligott Says. Here’s Why…

February 4, 2020February 4, 2020

Spoiler alert: His longer-term outlook is unchanged. Near-term action will be “just another swing in the pendulum”.

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1 Comment on ‘Monstrous’ Bond Rally Could Reverse Near-Term, Nomura’s McElligott Says. Here’s Why…

Macro Tourist Sighs: We’ve Had A Near-War And A Pandemic Scare. I’m No Longer Looking For A Sentiment Correction

February 4, 2020February 4, 2020

“I’m not advocating getting long on the assumption the bubble gets larger. But, I’m no longer trying to fade the strength.”

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3 Comments on Macro Tourist Sighs: We’ve Had A Near-War And A Pandemic Scare. I’m No Longer Looking For A Sentiment Correction

What Collapsing Oil Prices Are Saying About The Impact Of The Coronavirus

February 4, 2020February 4, 2020

An “urgent” assessment.

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oil, OPECLeave a Comment on What Collapsing Oil Prices Are Saying About The Impact Of The Coronavirus

Risk Appetite Returns To Global Markets As PBoC Spotted With Bazooka

February 4, 2020February 4, 2020

Whatever it takes.

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oilLeave a Comment on Risk Appetite Returns To Global Markets As PBoC Spotted With Bazooka

3 Things: ‘Ok, Google’, Coronavirus Cases Hit 20,000, FOMO Or Bust

February 3, 2020February 4, 2020

An exceedingly rare, buyable dip? Or maybe not so much, given the whole pandemic thing…

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7 Comments on 3 Things: ‘Ok, Google’, Coronavirus Cases Hit 20,000, FOMO Or Bust

What Role Did CTAs Play In Recent Price Action? A Quick Comment

February 3, 2020February 3, 2020

Take it for what it’s worth.

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oil2 Comments on What Role Did CTAs Play In Recent Price Action? A Quick Comment

Meanwhile, In Turkey…

February 3, 2020February 3, 2020

Inflation jump drives real rates further into negative territory, while Erdogan “neutralizes” nearly three-dozen of Assad’s troops.

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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