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Featured

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • ‘The Plain Fact’

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Trump Slaps China Over Venezuelan Oil As Maduro Locks Up Americans

January 1, 2026January 2, 2026

Stay out of it. That, apparently, is Donald Trump’s message to Beijing as it relates

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1 Comment on Trump Slaps China Over Venezuelan Oil As Maduro Locks Up Americans

After Turbulent Year, Where To For The Dollar?

December 31, 2025January 2, 2026

Who wants to own a currency issued by an authoritarian government with a huge deficit,

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3 Comments on After Turbulent Year, Where To For The Dollar?

Xi Congratulates Himself On ‘Extraordinary’ 2025 For China

December 31, 2025January 2, 2026

Congratulations to China. When all the math’s done and the meat thermometer confirms the books

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6 Comments on Xi Congratulates Himself On ‘Extraordinary’ 2025 For China

What Labor Market Weakness? US Jobless Claims Dive Anew

December 31, 2025January 5, 2026

Is it even worth documenting US jobless claims anymore? I honestly don’t know, because as

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Leave a Comment on What Labor Market Weakness? US Jobless Claims Dive Anew

Did Tesla Just Deliver A Stealth Sales Warning?

December 30, 2025

Was that a stealth sales warning? In a move one observer described as “highly unusual,”

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Fed Minutes Underscore Divisions As Trump Refloats Powell Lawsuit

December 30, 2025December 31, 2025

Did Donald Trump mention how much he hates Jerome Powell and how badly he wants

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5 Comments on Fed Minutes Underscore Divisions As Trump Refloats Powell Lawsuit

Iran Rushes To Address Currency Crisis Amid Trump Threats

December 30, 2025January 1, 2026

The theocracy in Tehran has a bad situation on its hands. The currency’s in a

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Venezuela Begins Oil Shut-Ins As Maduro Sings, Dances

December 30, 2025December 31, 2025

Nicolas Maduro’s doing what cartoonish dictators do when the chips are down: Availing himself of

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4 Comments on Venezuela Begins Oil Shut-Ins As Maduro Sings, Dances

US Home Price Growth Loiters Near Multi-Year Low

December 30, 2025December 31, 2025

Breaking old news (there’s a joke there, don’t miss it): US home values rose at

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Iran On The Brink: Currency Collapse May Presage End Game

December 29, 2025December 30, 2025

They’re pissed off in Iran. Although state media did its best to play down the

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10 Comments on Iran On The Brink: Currency Collapse May Presage End Game

Russia Says Ukraine Tried To Blow Up Putin’s Country Estate

December 29, 2025December 30, 2025

The Nord Stream sabotage and the assassination of Daria Dugina (in a car bomb likely

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7 Comments on Russia Says Ukraine Tried To Blow Up Putin’s Country Estate

Are Everyday People Catching Up To The Housing Bubble?

December 29, 2025December 30, 2025

Surprise, surprise: Contract signings in America’s otherwise frozen resale property market posted another outsized advance

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3 Comments on Are Everyday People Catching Up To The Housing Bubble?

Wall Street’s ‘No Bears Allowed’ Mantra Is 2026 Contrarian Indicator

December 29, 2025December 30, 2025

To be honest, I don’t love the setup for US equities in 2026. And yes,

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6 Comments on Wall Street’s ‘No Bears Allowed’ Mantra Is 2026 Contrarian Indicator

S&P Aims For Third 20% Gain In Bid To Break Bad Santa Streak

December 28, 2025December 29, 2025

This’ll be a slow week for markets. The data docket in the US isn’t empty,

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Leave a Comment on S&P Aims For Third 20% Gain In Bid To Break Bad Santa Streak

Don’t Kid Yourself: Putin Can’t Be Placated

December 28, 2025December 29, 2025

At this point, it’s virtually impossible to suggest the Kremlin’s serious about finding its way

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2 Comments on Don’t Kid Yourself: Putin Can’t Be Placated

Weekly: It’s Not Brain Surgery

December 27, 2025December 29, 2025

A couple of years ago I received a serious-sounding email from a guy who was

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21 Comments on Weekly: It’s Not Brain Surgery

Stocks Can Still Go Down Too, Right?

December 26, 2025December 29, 2025

Did you buy the dip? If you’re inclined to ask, “What dip?” I won’t blame

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4 Comments on Stocks Can Still Go Down Too, Right?

Desensitized Investors No Longer Shocked By The Shocking

December 26, 2025December 28, 2025

I realize we’re all desensitized by now to visuals illustrating extreme market concentration and its

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2 Comments on Desensitized Investors No Longer Shocked By The Shocking

Unsustainable Rallies

December 26, 2025December 28, 2025

Records on top of records on top of records. Many (most?) advanced economy bourses remained

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5 Comments on Unsustainable Rallies

Nvidia’s $20 Billion Groq Deal Is ‘Stunning’ Power Play

December 25, 2025December 27, 2025

If you can’t beat ’em — or suspect they might pose a challenge at some

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7 Comments on Nvidia’s $20 Billion Groq Deal Is ‘Stunning’ Power Play

A Record Ruble Run

December 25, 2025December 26, 2025

If you expand the cross-asset leaderboard to include a wide range of commodities and currencies

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Leave a Comment on A Record Ruble Run

Bessent Floats Change To Fed’s Inflation Mandate

December 24, 2025December 29, 2025

“Well, Martha, in case you don’t know, I’m actually a soybean farmer. So, I have

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13 Comments on Bessent Floats Change To Fed’s Inflation Mandate

Epic Buyer’s Market Fails To Break US Housing Deadlock

December 24, 2025December 26, 2025

If you were curious, there are still nearly 40% more sellers than buyers in the

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8 Comments on Epic Buyer’s Market Fails To Break US Housing Deadlock

Don’t Look For A Recession In US Jobless Claims

December 24, 2025December 25, 2025

If the plunge in initial US jobless claims witnessed in and around Thanksgiving was a

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K-Shaped Capex

December 23, 2025December 25, 2025

Although the “K-shaped” macro motif’s a bit tired by now, it has a lot of

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4 Comments on K-Shaped Capex

US Economy Grew Rapidly Ahead Of Shutdown

December 23, 2025December 24, 2025

The US economy expanded at a — get this — 4.3% clip in Q3, according

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3 Comments on US Economy Grew Rapidly Ahead Of Shutdown

Year One Of American ‘Golden Age’ Ends With Rock-Bottom Confidence

December 23, 2025December 24, 2025

Post your best frustrated Trump memes. Roll out the “golden age” jokes. Recycle the “vibecession”

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1 Comment on Year One Of American ‘Golden Age’ Ends With Rock-Bottom Confidence

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • BTFD on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • T-Dog on Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk
  • dayjob on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • derek on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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