9 Great Reasons To Doubt Trump’s “Phenomenal” Tax Reform Promise
“Phenomenal.” Just one word. That’s all Donald Trump thinks you need to know about his
“Phenomenal.” Just one word. That’s all Donald Trump thinks you need to know about his
“Trump needs to deliver next Tuesday or markets will throw a tantrum.”
Well, in what can only be described as a sign of the absurd times in which we live, breathe, and trade, Goldman is out on Wednesday with “a study of stock volatility on Trump tweets.”
“Don’t be fooled by the the holiday-shortened trading week in the US. Next week promises to give investors plenty to watch, including the Greek bailout, minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting, Bank of England governor Mark Carney’s testimony, retail earnings and Warren Buffett’s annual letter.”
“Over the last 3 weeks, US equities have rallied as fund positioning rose, the buyback bid resumed as companies exited blackout periods and US equity inflows returned over the last week. Overall US equity fund positioning getting elevated. Elevated overall positioning reflects that of long-short hedge funds and asset allocation funds.”
“Cognitive dissonance exists in the US stock market. S&P 500 is up 10% since the election despite negative EPS revisions from sell-side analysts (see Exhibit 1). Investors, S&P 500 management teams, and sell-side analysts do not agree on the most likely path forward.”
If I’ve said it once (and I’m pretty sure I have), I’ve said it a
Ok, it’s just getting comical now. Everyone is saying what I’ve been saying for months
Apparently, reports of the reflation meme’s demise were greatly exaggerated. It wasn’t too long ago
Well, it was all aboard the reflation train right out of the gate in early
“Both of these inferences are wrong. The risk of a President Le Pen is far lower than the ex ante risk of Brexit or President Trump was last year, but the consequence of her winning would be far worse.”
Friday is all about Trump again. More specifically, FX markets will be closely eyeing a meeting between the President and Japanese PM Shinzo Abe. Meanwhile, oil is buoyant Friday on the back of an IEA report showing OPEC has achieved a record 90% compliance while demand is on the rise.
“Is the reflation narrative dead or alive?”
Remember Neel “Crazy Eyez” Kashkari? He was a prominent character in Hank Paulson’s “GE is
“Nowadays, we have markets that have gone up or markets that have crashed. When they rise, the powers-that-be are doing their jobs and investors are getting their just rewards. When they go down, everyone just got their pockets picked.”
“Trump is doubling down on his hardline autocratic approach, ensuring that markets won’t be able to overlook the implications of his immigration order. U.S. equities look worryingly vulnerable.”
One wonders if Navarro’s comments might just reflect the political biases of Steve Bannon, whose Breitbart News has been fanning the populist flames in Europe for years in an apparent effort to bolster the prospects of nationalist politicians in France, the Netherlands, and yes, Germany.
We start Wednesday with the dollar (where else, right?). Trump’s protectionist rhetoric and the lingering
“Undoubtedly, the Trump administration will be igniting many ‘fires’ on its front door and around the world. Let’s wait and see when it will be China’s turn.”
It’s “too complicated.” I imagine that probably sums up Donald Trump’s feelings about a lot
“I think it’s going to be a fun year for trading”…
There’s been nothing ambiguous about investors’ collective reaction to the election of Donald Trump. Once
“Every country in the world better start worrying about authoritarian populism and the absence of substance in our dialogue.”
A pervasive theme here at the Heisenberg Report is that Donald Trump’s determination to start
I’ve talked quite a bit lately about how surreal it is that we live (and
There are a lot of things you can say about Heisenberg, but one thing you
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