Retail Sales! Who’s Excited?!
As a reminder, this is the marquee data point in the U.S. this week and it will be yet another opportunity for the market to assess the new, U.S.-centric growth narrative.
As a reminder, this is the marquee data point in the U.S. this week and it will be yet another opportunity for the market to assess the new, U.S.-centric growth narrative.
In case it isn’t clear enough, this just further underscores the policy divergence narrative.
Draw your own conclusions.
“The ratings will be tremendous.”
Fault lines, 90th percentile risks and the probability of stepping on a land mine.
“…it’s not like you have to dig deep to find a problem.”
Douglas Adams time.
And that’s the week.
Things no one knows about.
“Between the March 2009 bottom and the January 2018 peak, of course, they were essentially buying the dips—-about 50 of them with material dimension. The short-run narrative constantly changed—low interest rates, escape velocity ahead, synchronous global reflation, Goldilocks once more—-but the mechanic was always the same.”
As usual, lots on the docket.
This debate is obviously crucial for the market going forward. Everyone is acutely aware of how important it is for tech high-fliers to avoid an Icarus moment until we finally see the fabled “rotation” back into value or, more simply, until another sector proves it’s capable of taking the baton in this aging bull market.
Waiting game.
“In our view, Fed put is currently moving deeper out of the money. This is effectively a withdrawal of convexity and risk assets are reacting with what at the moment appears as a reinforcing loop.”
“China officially launched its sword in less than 24 hours.”
“…to all you Marty McFlys out there”…
“Waiting to inhale.”
“That’s because his newly appointed task will be to dig through Ronald Reagan’s proverbial room full of horse manure to reassure the Donald that there is a pony in there somewhere.”
“So, he’s proud. I said, ‘Wrong, Justin, you do.’ I didn’t even know. … I had no idea. I just said, ‘You’re wrong.’ You know why? Because we’re so stupid”
Congrats, Larry. You’re now in the “stable genius” advisory business.
“…what more evidence do you need that the financial markets are completely uncoupled from reality and that these feeble bounces between the 50-day and 20-day chart points are essentially the rigor mortis of a dead bull?”
“…volatility across various asset classes can be at times highly correlated and hence the extraordinary growth of short volatility strategies might create risks.”
Ok, dammit….
This is not going to be for the faint of heart.
So basically, Ben just said that the only thing he can think of off the top of his head that would be worse for financial markets than Trump starting a trade war would be if the plot of “Seeking A Friend For The End Of The World” became reality.
“I just bought this can today.”
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